Wait times for SDD at Rope Drop?

I’m working on a TP for a HS day in early December (CL 3). Couldn’t get SDD FP for our family of 5, so am hoping to RD and walk fast. TP software says the wait will be over an hour at RD - can this be right? (there’s no early morning magic that day) I know waits are bad, but that early?!

One more FPP question for HS: is it worth keeping one for Muppetvision? (this is just to do something non-scary while the bigger kids and DH are on TOT).

Thank you!

I’ve been doing some looking at this, too.
@dizneedad had some good info in another thread…

So, what I’ve been hearing (and assuming for myself) is that if we get there quite a bit before park opening (like 8:15), we can have a half-hour wait. Otherwise, I expect it’ll be an hour or more.

Similar situation.
I’ll get there way early for EMH, but TP is saying if I get to SDD a little after 8, it’ll be an hour.
If we don’t get in early, and sdd is a long wait - we’ll be just fine skipping it and doing tsmm a few times.

TP says I should go to SDD a while after EMH RD (presumably to let the SDD RD crowd move on,) and it’ll be a 35 min wait. CL3, emh day.

Ah, OK, nice to know I’m not alone. I guess my question now is: who would the people in front of me in line be (given that we’re all starting at 9 on that day) - people are at the front of the park and walk/run faster than I do? Maybe another way to think about this is - would I rather wait for an hour before the park opens and hustle, or head over at a normal time/pace and do my hour’s wait in the SDD line.

I’ve been optimizing every which way with my FPP for that day, and SDD was at one point put later but with a longer wait. Maybe the RD crowds never really die down?

I haven’t been to TSL yet, but I think it solely depends on where you are in the pack at rope drop. If you get there early enough and are front of the pack I think you’ll walk on within 5 minutes. The further back, the longer the wait.

Early ADR folks? I also think that TP assumes you are not at the very front of the line.

I believe this is definitely correct.

I am in a Facebook group for October visits. Someone just reported getting to HS at 8:00 for a 9:00 opening and she said she rode SDD, TSM and Aliens all 9:30. Said they started letting people walk back at 8:45. Someone else reported similar waits arriving at 8:30. For reference, TP said crowd levels were 2 yesterday.

So, does TP assume you are tapping into park at official open? Or does it assume you are just middle of the pack? My TP for HS has me arriving at SDD at 9:10 with a 9 am open. If I arrive before park opening and am in the middle of the pack, does this sound correct? I’m not sure where they hold you for RD at HS so I’m not sure how to judge. Planning on leaving resort 1 hour prior to RD for arrival approx. 20-30 min before RD. That’s probably best we can do. Any insight?

ETA we will be there on CL3 day

No, I would expect that you could be back there by 8:45-9:00 if you get to HS at 8:3. Try putting a 1 minute breakfast at Woody’s Lunch box for 9:00. That lets TP know you’ll be there earlier. Helped my plans at Epcot!

It assumes you arrive at the park at 9am (or whenever RD is).

Yep - TP is assuming you’re checking in right at opening, which means you’re behind the whole crowd who’s gathered to wait for RD. I’ve noticed, it’s doing this even if I put in a short break right at 9 (or even 8:30) at Woodys Lunch Box. I know it worked well to make that modification at AK, but for some reason it’s not doing the same for HS.

I DO like hearing reports from folks who are getting there slightly before RD (8:30) and can ride with a minimal wait. I think, for us, an 8:30 arrival is super-doable. Yay!

Also remember that TP calculates for the shortest overall (i.e. all day) combined wait time. For example, assume “Ride A” gets a 60 min line right away and it remains constant most of the day, but “Ride B” and “Ride C” start at 15 min and then build to an hour later. TP will put you on B and C first to take advantage of their short waits, knowing that A is going to long no matter when you ride. If this makes sense.

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Good idea about the break! - gonna add it and see.

let me know if it works for you… it really didn’t at all for me.
I ended up starting my plan 30 minutes later, and making it a fastpass at 9 am.

So, my plan artifically says that I start at 9:30, with a 9:00 fastpass for SDD. Then I also have a fastpass for something else… TSMM maybe(?) at the same time.