W/o March 6th...bad idea?

The projected numbers for my upcoming trip (Mar 6-12) are a lot higher than I anticipated after my research…mostly 8s and 10s.

It’s after Mardi Gras, nestled between a cheer competition the weekend before and the first big spring break rush the weekend after. I trust TP’s numbers more than myself, so what am I missing? Early spring breakers? Flower and Garden Fest superfans?

If you were me, would you do the first week of April instead, which is mostly 2s and 3s? Or…maybe this is the bigger question…should I be less handcuffed to the numbers?

I think it is really impossible to predict the crowds this year. If the current Covid wave continues, the numbers could be lower for a while and then extremely high after the wave.

Always plan for high crowds and be pleasantly surprised if you are wrong.



I (probably like you) like to depend on previous years CL data rather than Crowd Calendar predictions, especially if they don’t align.

Looking back at those similar dates in March in previous years, it’s typically CL 5-7. Those higher levels usually come the following week. I see no reason that the levels would be 8-10. Early April seems inconsistent and harder to predict. F & G is always a minor factor for any given date.

Plus, Touring Plans said this in a previous blog: "In years like 2022, when Easter is late, the spring break season is spread out from mid-March to mid-April."


Hi all. Jumping back into the forum after a long absence (my apologies). I too am concerned about crowds the first week of March 2022. I started looking at the early 2022 passholder offer about a week after it was introduced, and there was nothing available (1 BR Villas) at any of the resorts where we wanted to stay (BLT, Riviera, BCV). I’ve been looking at resort availability since then, and it is very limited. I got lucky one day and stumbled on a 1 BR Villa at BCV at the regular room rate, (which I immediately booked), probably after someone cancelled. Our dates are 3/5 - 3/11/2022. Airfares have been ridiculously high for that week, so I haven’t booked any flights yet :worried:. I know that is a popular week (we’ve visited that week in the past), but is it really going to be that crowded? I don’t see any specific events on the crowd calendar other than F&G. If anyone here has been planning that week and has better information, please reply! Thanks!

Have a good plan, do touring research, know the basics of G+/ILL, and you’ll be fine!

Looking for “better information” is like consulting with a psychic! :joy: I looked at some other sites with crowd calendars and they are all similar. Moderate to heavy crowds, but not the heaviest crowds. UT has that week at a 7 out if 10 and then here is WDWprep:

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Thank you for the information. I do have to educate myself about everything that’s new. I’ve been ignoring it for months because other priorities were more pressing and I thought things might change again anyway, so I put it off. But next week I have to reserve dining., so it’s time…

That’s a great approach. You said it with the unpredictability these days. I went to Disneyland last July and it was maybe the least crowded I’ve ever seen a Disney park. And that was during a Covid lull! Speaking of, I won’t go if this wave stays strong, so I may be part of that crowd surge after.

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I went that same timeframe in 2020. I had this grand idea I wanted to spend my birthday (March 8) at MK. I don’t remember what the prediction was. Don’t think it was 10, but it was awful.
My trip last month was predicted 3-4, which was correct as far as wait times, but the crowds were awful. Personally, I would not do a 10 when 3-4 is as bad as it is.


Thank you! That validates what I found and was thinking when I booked my dates however long ago. I won’t let the numbers dictate when I go unless they’re covid numbers. Appreciate it!

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I hear you. I’ll use touring plans and genie+ so the wait times are less of a factor for me. It’s the overwhelming crowds that turn me off.

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Way pre pandemic this is the week I would do things with my kids becuz they had a small charter school abnormal schedule and got the first weekend of march thru the real first week of many school systems spring break off. I could really start to feel the crowds rise the last Friday and Saturday when everyone’s else’s spring breaks began. The first part of the week I wouldn’t call dead like this last august but moderate crowds. But with Covid who knows anymore.


March 7, 2020. 10:36 AM. Animal Kingdom. :grimacing::weary:


Those 2 days you mentioned were a Saturday & Sunday. At least the posters will have mostly weekdays during their trip, which will be more manageable than the weekend days on the front or back ends of the visit.


That’s encouraging. Though, you’re right. All bets are off with covid.

That is not what I’d call moderate! Hopefully as bebe80 said, the weekdays will be kinder.

It’s really just different now because a lot of WDW’s crowds were international before and now they’re mostly local I think. So before I don’t think that weekends were necessarily worse but now definitely so. And evenings in Epcot are bad. If you do want to hit food carts in EPC I say do it for lunch, there are no lines till late afternoon.


Great tip. Thank you! I’m all about eating at odd times to beat the lines.

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