Virtually no change in TP wait times from CL5 to CL8?

In light of the fact that even with the updated info, CLs seem to be off lately, I am creating TPs for my Jan/Feb 2016 on two levels. One with the predicted CL and one with a CL 3 numbers higher, just to be prepared. How is it that I am getting virtually the same wait times whether I am using a level 5 or a level 8? Is something not properly adjusted or is there really only about 20 minutes difference in total daily wait time from a 5 to an 8? I feel like this is giving me false hope! Any insight?

I know many people have reported the same thing. Question: does the sequence of attractions differ in your plans or stay the same?

It differs a bit, but some blocks of time stay the same. I realize that could account for some of the “even-ing out”, but I would still expect higher wait times overall.

Thanks, I would too. Also, I know people are reporting that walking from one attraction to another is taking too long and therefor it is impacting their plans (they cannot get through the crowds). Is there more time for that?

Since I will have three kids with me, I have my walking speed set to “Very Relaxed” and the total walk times are within 5 minutes of each other. Totally bizarre…

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This is to be expected. There was a blog post that compared the wait times for the same TP optimized for each of the CLs, and the overall times did not change too much until you hit to the dreaded 9 and 10 levels. This is the beauty of the Optimizer in that it can really help you adjust to changing conditions with the least amount of impact.

I don’t think that the Optimizer adjusts walk times based on CL. Interesting idea - hey @Len, any thoughts on this?

And now it gets wierder. I took my AK plan and optimized it for a CL8 day with comparable hours and no EMH. I then changed the date to my actual CL4 day and the waits went up! I went from spending 97 total minutes waiting in line to 206! @len, any ideas what might be causing this insanity?

Publish the plans and post the links here - I’m curious about this too.

Okay, a few things I figured out. For some reason, on my CL4 day, it won’t use all the FPPs I entered, saying I won’t need them. It is also saying I will arrive at my ADR 10 minutes later and thus, I will miss the 1:00 pm Lion King show, and now have 44 minutes of free time. In the end, this accounts for most of the confusion The reason for the long wait I noticed before is because I won’t get everything done, and it gave me a 74 minute “wait”. In any event, the first of these was built and optimized and the FPPs were added in and reoptimized. All I did was change the date and evaluate and I get these two different plans, with the CL8 getting to all my things with no problem and the CL4 not even getting to everything…though I see now that it’s mostly because of that 10 minute delay in my ADR. You will see, however, all of this aside, that all my wait times on the CL 8 day are comparable to or lower than my CL 4 day.

This is my CL 4: http://touringplans.com/plans/print?id=1676335

This is my CL 8: http://touringplans.com/plans/print?id=1676396

I wouldn’t rely on the CL4 plan at all - it has you arriving at the last two attractions after park closing. For a true comparison you need to have a valid CL4 plan with useful FPP times.

I agree. But I don’t see how that could even happen with supposedly lower crowds! I adjusted the ADR issue and if you look now, there are still slightly longer waits on the CL 4 day. I don’t understand that.

I’ll ask @fred to weigh in on this.

As odd as it seems, this can definitely happen. First of all, the wait times are not that different between a crowd level ‘4’ and ‘8’ at AK. Also remember that the crowd levels are only based on the key attractions (Everest, Dinosaur, Kali, Safaris and Primeval Whirl).

My advice: Use the Crowd Calendar to pick your day, then rely on the touring plan and forget the crowd level - the wait times on your plan are what matter most. The calendar is a guide, the plan is custom for YOU.

Just looking at the two first steps it looks odd - step 1 is OK, but step 2 seems out of whack. The only thing I can think of is that the model is anticipating that on the CL 8 day they will be running KS at full capacity so the wait times won’t build up as quickly. I know that there are some “sweet spots” out there where WDW adds capacity to an attraction to deal with crowds resulting in lower wait times than at a lower crowd level where they do not add the extra capacity.

Thanks @fred! I appreciate your input! So you’re saying I shouldn’t try to use a higher CL day to prepare for worse crowds because it won’t make a difference? I’m seeing similar things between a CL 4 and CL 7 at MK as well.

Yes. If it were me I would make my plan for the day I intend to visit, regardless of my confidence in the crowd level prediction.