Okay. As some of you may have seen, I’m seriously considering this for the first time. I’ve thought about all the other factors that you all suggest, so leave those aside for the moment. From a purely economical standpoint, tell me if I’m crazy for thinking about it in this way:

If I buy 200 points resale on a contract with 35 years left at \$125 per point (I’m rounding everything for ease of math), then I’m buying 7,000 “lifetime” points for \$25,000. Add in \$1,600 for annual dues per year (forget about inflation for a moment) and the total cost comes to \$65,000. Take that \$65k and divide it by the 5,000 points and I’m basically buying points at \$9.50 each. Current rental rate is \$18-19, right?! So buying now on that contract provides significant savings over the lifetime (and I’ll make an assumption that dues will inflate at more or less the same rate as renting points). Am I missing something here?

Alternate scenario is I buy direct from Disney 125 points at Riviera for \$200 per point and 50 year contract (again, rounding). That’s \$25,000 now but \$1,050 dues over 50 years is an additional \$52.5k, so a total buy in of \$77,500. 6,250 “lifetime” points then cost \$12.50 each, also a good deal but not necessarily as good as resale (and presumes that I intend to celebrate my 90th birthday in the bubble…).

Am I spinning nonsense here? Or have I just calculated my way into a pretty airtight argument to convince DH we should move on it? (Again, setting aside the value of investing those funds instead)

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Your math looks good to me but I don’t math and I want people to buy DVC if they want to

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Also, based on this chart:

Can you confirm that I would have until 1/31/22 to bank those 128 points? Or do I have that process confused?

You’ll get 128 on 6/1/21 and have until 5/31/22 to use. And must bank by 1/31/22 if I am calculating right.

See see earlier post about math

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Renting points now can be \$20 to \$21 per point, unless you manage to find a deal (usually with only a month or so warning). And the cost of points continues to rise. I think it seems to be rising at approximately a dollar per point every year or two.

IF you were already planning to stay on site at a deluxe resort regularly, then it can save money. If you generally stay value or off site, then the cost of DVC would be more. In the past, we always stayed off site, so DVC just wasn’t financially worth it. But now, my wife and I are thinking we will go, just the two of us, every couple years. This makes buying DVC potentially worth it. My biggest issue is availability of Boardwalk contracts, and the fact that they expire in 2042. That means buying only gets 20 more years. So we are still thinking on it.

Not nonsense. The value is in planning to use it over the course of the contract (or possibly selling after 15-20 years, but let’s not get into that right now). So assuming you and DH will want to use after the kids are moved out, you’re not losing your mind

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Is that right? With a June use year, you only have six months to use points? I would’ve assumed I could use the June 2021 points through May 2022?!

Typo

2022 is right. I will fix.
Fat thumbs

Edited: or not even. I was thinking of my own use year of December

Lack of caffeine

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If you would definitely go to Disney every year (or every other year, whatever your assumptions are for how many points you want), and definitely stay onsite deluxe…then sure, you can claim to save money with DVC.

But the future is unknown and vacations, especially Disney deluxe vacations, are a luxury and one of the first budget items most people cut if money gets tight.

The biggest downside to DVC is all the money that is tied up in it when you purchase. \$25k is a large amount of money for most people, plus another \$1,200 annually, whether you use the points or not. And to use the points, you usually have to spend a lot more money - especially if you live far enough away to generally fly. Plane tickets, park tickets, etc. I know people sometimes use DVC rooms without visiting the parks, but that’s generally not what’s intended when staying on Disney property.

DVC contracts have held their value well (or gained in value), and renting out points is a pretty decent option these days. But that’s not guaranteed to continue, especially as contracts start getting close to end date. So you shouldn’t count on being able to sell and recoup the money you’ve spent.

It largely comes down to how committed you are to a Disney-based lifestyle and how risk averse you are to dropping that amount of money. Personally, I wouldn’t consider paying a lot now to potentially have lower vacation costs in the future as “savings.”

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I think the only real piece of the “math” that you are missing are what you could do with the \$25,000 instead of giving it to Disney, plus the calculation of if you aren’t really paying full price to rent points every year (room only discount, off-site, etc).

Where can you see how much it costs in points to stay someplace? Like IF I was borrowing points (or owned them) where could I look at was available for a particular time frame? I never have seen anything on the regular Disney booking site.

Also - this is actually pretty important. Even with a VERY conservative projected increase, my SSR dues will triple before the end date of the contract.

Our annual dues this year were close to 3K… but I guess that has to do w/ the amount of points and DVC location.

I use a couple of apps but the charts are here
https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/vacation-planning/points-charts/

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i’m not good at talking anyone into or out of DVC. I am glad I bought in as I feel I am getting value out of it, but then it is a ton of money that probably would be better applied elsewhere.

On paper, I never see the numbers looking particularly good. As I said, it’s a ton of money for… a theme park. Yikes. No matter how you try to justify it, you’re blowing thousands on essentially “toys”. But then I looked at it like buying a car. A car that I can use for “40 years”. I really can’t think of anything else that I own that is going to last that long, and the cost isn’t going to make any noticeable impact into any house-loan I would have. So as long as it didn’t put me in some redonkulous debt, I was pretty good with everything.

Comparing rack rates (and even “discounted rates”) to the value of my contracts, I’ve already broken even on 1 contract and am well on my way to breaking even on the other. And that’s with 3 years of ownership. Room rates are always going to climb, even the value ones, and while annual dues will as well, I don’t see them skyrocketing at the same rate. I could be wrong, though.

My biggest hesitation is the thought of what will Chapek start ending next? DME is already dead-bus-running and that was a HUGE thing for me. What’s next that isn’t protected via the DVC rules?

DVC Rental USED to have a quote-generator that would tell you what points you would need and what it would cost to rent. That looks like it’s gone now(Bad move on their part). But David’s seems to have one.

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This is my favorite app to play with

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What does this mean? It’s at the bottom of one of the charts at the website. Is this about resale points?

which chart, specifically? That sounds like the rules they’re applying to Riveria. Is that where you saw it?

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