Update on WDW Crowd Calendar Updates

We’ve updated the crowd calendar models for all 4 parks, and we’ve gone through them day-by-day for the next few months to make sure the numbers look reasonable.

The MK and EP look good. Our DHS estimates seem to be off, and we think it’s related to the Tower of Terror issues we outlined in our blog post a couple weeks ago. We’re adjusting that and re-running DHS now.

The AK numbers look off, and we’re pretty sure this is a result of DHS being off. We’ll re-run AK after DHS. The other thing to note here is that the models think there’s a minor correlation between DHS attraction closures and AK gaining guests.

We’re hoping to have WDW crowd cal updates done within 24 hours. Fred will do a blog post describing the changes too.

I’ll update this topic as we know more. Thanks for your patience on this.



Do you expect any of the early April numbers to change (hopefully for the better). There is a $20 if you change them to 5 or below

Minor increases so far for the MK:

Ignore the “0.00%” column - that’s an internal indicator we use as a sanity check of sorts.

The leftmost column is the date. Column #2 is the current MK predicted crowd level. Column #3 is what we think the revised level will be.

you’re killing me - no $20 for you!! How do the 11th and 12th look. We are going to be there 4/8 - 4/12. Thanks though - that is quick service!!!

Okay, so that’s not $20 worth of lower numbers. Maybe a small cup of coffee or something? :stuck_out_tongue:

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When do you expect these changes to take effect in the system?

Or, you know… just tell me about the first week of March. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

OK ok - a SMALL - but only decaf - not sure if you deserve regular!! Ha - no thanks.

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Should be within 24 hours.

We’re comfortable with the MK numbers through the end of February. Beyond that, there are some new variables that we’ve added to better track short-term changes, and we won’t know for about 30 days how they’re working. We will probably update them again in December. So take these March numbers with a grain of salt:

The color coding is just for us, so we notice large changes in numbers from year to year. Also, that “9” prediction for 2016-03-07 seems to have been too high to begin with - it was a 7 on the same date last year.

I’ll go ahead and upgrade that coffee, and throw in a desert. :coffee: :custard:

Really love watching numbers go down. First time with two small kids and long lines are going to be a new experience.

Thanks for what you do!

But yes… I expect the numbers to change as we approach our actual vacation date.

NK - see the problem is he is LOWERING your numbers but RAISING mine - HA

Anxiously waiting! We’re there the first week in February. Thanks for all the work, @len! No matter what happens, I’ll throw in some flavored creamer for the coffee! :smile:

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I see no problem…

@len We leave next Wednesday, are the #'s for November 18th-25th correct on the crowd calendar now? If not, I would love to know how they are looking now, pretty please :relaxed:

Same question as above poster. We leave in less than 3 weeks for Thanksgiving weekend, and MK still has 5 out of 10 and 7 out of 10 crowd predictions for Wednesday before Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving Day respectively, even though the prior year ‘actuals’ were much higher. With the economy better this year than that, I am still thinking the Wednesday prediction, at a minimum, seems too good to be true! I’ll take it, of course…

Fairly stable. The two dates in orange are between MVMCP dates, I believe, and we’re seeing higher crowds for those.

I wouldn’t worry about the dates with 1 point increases. Relatively minor, especially if you arrive early and have a touring plan.

Here’s Thanksgiving week for the MK. The updated model still says a mild Wednesday Thanksgiving Eve. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

@len Looks great, our 2 MK days didn’t change at all. I will optimize my plans the day before we leave just to have the most up to date info.
I will watch for Epcot, HS & AK to update on the CC, as you mentioned, within the next 24 hours.

Thank you again!

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Ouch. Thanksgiving is a 9 now! More in line with last year, though. Good thing we are leaving the park that day really early, although we will be back in the evening and will have to contend with major madness for fireworks and light show.

@Len, trying to figure out what this means. Are these for MK only, or park wide? We were/are planning to go to MK on 11/18. A 3 to a 6 seems pretty huge. Is it worth changing our parks around, so that we go to AK on the 18th and move our MK day to the 19th. Do you think we would be be able to get FPs for MK on the 19th and for AK on the 18th? Not sure what to do.