TP weirdness

I’m planning MK days on a CL 2 day (Tuesday) and a CL 1 day (Thursday). I noticed that all of the waits seemed higher in the TP for the CL 1 day, but then I was thinking maybe it’s just the rides I chose that day or something, so I tried the CL 2 TP on Thursday and… with everything exactly the same except the date, the CL1 plan still takes longer than the CL 2 plan. I think it’s probably because on CL 2 day it predicted a 5 minute wait for step 1, Space Mountain, and on CL 1 day it’s predicting a 9 minute wait for the same thing, so that’s pushing everything later.

Here’s Tuesday, CL 2
Here’s Thursday, CL 1

Am I missing something, or am I really going to be waiting longer for things on a CL 1 day than on a CL 2 day?

The TP statisticians have said in the past that there is almost no difference in a CL level that is one or two points off.

Your CL2 day is on a Tuesday - which, statistically, is the lowest wait day for the parks in a typical week.

IMHO - that’s a factor in why it’s a little different. You are spending the exact same amount of time in line each day - 187 minutes. (which seems correct for a day that is only one level different)


I’ve been watching wait times all week and they fluctuate, which meant we needed to be flexible. There didn’t seem to be a rhyme or reason for the wait times either. I’ve been watching the MDE wait times b/c they seem to be accurate.

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Except that on Tuesday I’m spending 161 minutes in line, and it’s 187 on Thursday, not a huge total difference, but unexpected. I wasn’t expecting a big difference, but I also wasn’t expecting a CL 1 to have longer waits than a CL 2 for the exact same itinerary… that kinda contradicts the idea that CL is based on wait times. If Tuesdays are statistically the lowest wait day then why isn’t it the lowest CL day?

I’m thinking there was some discussion at one point that if CL was super low, things would not be fully open? Like they’d only be running one side of Space Mountain? So that could cause some wait times to actually go up?

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That’s what I was going to reply with. Disney knows how many people are coming. They pretty much did pre-Covid before reservations were required. So it is expected that they will run fewer cars on coasters or boats on other rides, and lines will be a little longer because of it.

However, I can’t say for certain that this would make a huge difference between CL1 and CL2 days. Regardless, trust the touring plan. They are correct nearly all of the time.

TP only uses wait times from like 11 to 5 to calculate CLs. So if you are there before or after those times, the waits might not reflect CLs.