TP wait times for TSMM

Hi! Earlier today I posted on Chat about the wait time I was given on the TP I’m working on. Here’s a recap, and then I’ll pose the current conundrum:

I am making a TP for HS on 6/2. I optimized to begin with, and the ride order I was given was (1) RnR, (2)RnR we plan to ride more than once so I indicated that when selecting the attractions, (3)TSMM. It had me arriving at TSMM at 9:48am with a wait time of 32 minutes.
I found that wait time to be a bit odd- I assumed that since the park would have been open for nearly an hour at that time, the wait should be longer. My question to other Liners was whether that seemed off or maybe I was wrong in my assumption.

So here is the conundrum at this point:
I planned to move TSMM to the top of the list and then evaluate. We usually ride RnR using single rider, so I didn’t find it necessary for that ride to be in the number 1 spot. That was the only change I made. Now, my TP has me arriving at TSMM at 9:07am with a wait of 34 minutes. Why would that be the case? That’s 2 minutes MORE than what it told me the wait would be 40 minutes later.

I guess I was thinking once I moved TSMM to the top that the wait would be somewhat lower, at least according to the Touring Plan if not in real life.

Could anyone take a stab at this for me? It’s hard for me to know what to believe is accurate when that happens!

Because everyone rushes to TSMM at Rope Drop. A huge throng lands, waits in line. But after the initial rush, the line builds at a slower rate than riders are able to get on the ride. (At which point, the wait settles out a bit until the big crowds start arriving and getting oriented after 10 am.)

I will also post what I did on your chat post: I expect your wait times are reflecting the fact that there will be three tracks instead of two after May 27th. I would agree with @mossymom that the initial crowd will slow it down. I would further guess it may take a few mutes for all three tracks to begin running to capacity?

Exactly this. There’s a post-opening lull.Happens at many attractions.

@len, is the system set to consider the 3rd tracks on Toy Story and Soarin (I know Epcot wait times may be different due to the Frozen openings and their impact)?

Thanks everyone! (and a direct reply from @len…yay!).

@mossymom- would your recommendation be to wait just a bit and follow the TP as it was originally optimized (RnR first, TSMM atad later once the rush has died down)? Given the 2 minute difference in wait times, I’m guessing it probably doesn’t matter. ?
@PrincipalTinker- soooo glad the third track is opening. Interested to see what it does for wait times. :slight_smile: If only my trip dates coincided with the opening of the third hangar of Soarin’… :frowning:

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@Lmf, I think I’d probably just follow the TP. BUT if you’re riding RnR single rider, I have no idea what the wait profile is like… if that’s the case, then you may be better off heading for TSMM first. Also, if you’re at the FRONT of the RD crowd, your TSMM wait will NOT be 34 minutes (at 9:07), in which case, hit TSMM first.
I think I’d leave the first 70 minutes of your day open to the following possibilities:

  1. If you are early for RD, front of the line: TSMM then RnR x2
  2. If you had a huge breakfast and don’t want to barf on RnR right off the bat, hit TSMM first
  3. If you arrive at 9 am, middle of the pack (which is what TP expects), head to RnR first x 2 then TSMM as per TP recommendation.

I have trouble believing the predictions. On a CL 9 day, part of our group went right to TSM right at RD and had ~15 min wait. The rest of us did Jedi training sign-up first, got to TSM at ~9:15 and the posted wait time was 45 min. We chose not to ride since we had a FP for later. So I’d go 1st to TSM (as fast as you can after arriving as early as you can) and then to RnR.