I suspect this is old ground I’m attempting to cover here, but here are the predicted crowd levels for my upcoming trip:
Who’s right?
I do not think they measure the crowds the same way? I will say a few things about the differences: 1. UT was the first wdw app I downloaded. TP was the second. I deleted UT when they repeatedly reported waits for attractions closed for refurbishment 2. I believe (I may be wrong here) that TP relies on historical data. The last few years the end of June has been lower crowds- like, “oh wow- this is great!”. I tried to book an end of June trip, off site- and a few resorts are not available that I did not think would be an issue. That makes me think crowds may be larger than the last few years?
The crowd level numbers can’t really be compared between 2 crowd calendars. They are figured out differently. Depending on how Undercover tourist determines their numbers, they could both be right.
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UT gives no rational or method for their predictions, and they do not follow up and say how they did. TP does all of these things, so for that reason I have greater faith in their prefictions.
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UT says they use wait time data they’ve collected for more than 10 years, but don’t give any specific details - certainly not to the extent that TP does. Also, UT gives only an overall number for a day, not each park, and says which parks are recommended or busy. Makes it tough to try to compare a given park on the two sites. I agree with @brklinck, that it’s important to note TP gives follow-up - a way to judge their predictions.
Neither are going to be completely accurate, but I would say that TP has a lot more data and analytic backing their prediction than anyone else. The only problem with TP’s crowd calendar is if Disney changes the rules of the game.
I cannot speak to TP’s accuracy for Disney, but for Universal, it was not very accurate for my last trip.
In the past, I’ve used the UT crowd calendar to plan our trips to Disney and found it to be pretty spot on from a purely subjective sense.
But, as I’m the first to point out, I have not done an apples to apples comparison, which makes the usefulness of this response questionable at best! 