TP Predicted Crowd Levels

I’m sure this has been asked many times in many guises……. the TP Crowd Calendar for our first day (Sun 29th Mar) at HS is a 6. I would love that, but it feels way too low. There is a lot of chat about how busy all the parks are currently, especially HS. Does TP just use historical data, how about current trends?

TP feeds a lot of data into their calculation. All of it would be based on historical data, of course…even current trends, because how can one know what a current trend is without understanding the historical significance! What does opening of a new ride due to crowds, for example? In order to add that current trend into the data, they have to use past ride openings as a guide.

Other inputs might include when schools have vacations, when certain holidays fall, special events Disney might be having, etc.

Of course, no method can be perfect.

I think March 29 probably falls fairly squarely between the mid-winter break time period and the spring break time period.

Thanks for the reply ryan1. That gives me context and hope!

Remember the TP CLs are based on wait times.
The park may feel mobbed but the rides are flowing smoothly=low crowd levels.
Less people around but rides aren’t fully staffed and fully deployed will give you longer wait times=high crowd levels!
Maybe they’re predicting smooth attraction functionality!

1 Like

The other thing to remember is that if HS is still opening at 8am, the morning will feel way higher than a 6 due to people being in the park early trying to get a boarding group for ROTR. I imagine in the am it’s probably more like a 10 all the time, esp the later they let the park open. I don’t think TP has anything to calculate that specifically. I am there April 2nd and it’s showing a 5 but there’s no way I will expect it to only be a 5. LOL

10 in the am…1 in the pm = 5 :sunglasses:

Thanks everyone, appreciate the comments and get the jist.

Predicted CL’s have been WAY off this January and February. In my opinion, TP has not accurately accounted for the brand new SWGE in the “off season”. Besides HS, heavier than normal crowds have affected AK. And also MK mildly. If you have a good plan and it happens to be an 8 instead of 6, you will be fine. Two years ago at AK, I encountered an 8 that was supposed to be a 5 but had a blast and all went as planned!

1 Like