Touring Plans accuracy with current (low predicted) Crowd Calendar levels

Wow. Not my guess though. That was your call. And a nice one! Man I’ve been jammed up today with my 7yo bday party. I need some catching up. I just saw this.

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Still planning to make the best of it and have a great time through rope drop, Genie+, and Touring plans!

Right on. Nailed it!

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last three days for us and TP has been spot on, eerily so. I always dial my walking down to lowest so that I have a fair bit of shopping, restroom time inbetween. i do have trohble submitting my actual wait times because of connection *i wish lines would start pausing the timer when you hit submit but have no signal.

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Agreed. Did first park, AK, yesterday, but didn’t wait standby very much. But the couple times we did, they were not far off. I had trouble with lines app. User error I’m sure so. I didn’t get any timing done.

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I wish there was a way to manually submit times. Then I’d use my phone timer until boarding and just enter the time in as soon as I’m off the ride.

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Heading to DW Aug 23-Sep 1 and just noticed Epcot jumped to a 5 most days from 1-2’s. It was mostly Epcot that jumped considerably (HS jumped a bit but not as dramatic). Any ideas what caused the large jump for Epcot? I haven’t found any announcements about something new going on there that week.

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There was a TP blog post about it when they adjusted the predictions. I think it said that so far this year, they have found their Epcot predictions to be the most volatile. Sometimes too high, sometimes too low. They adjusted the lower dates up in crowd level in order to set realistic expectations. All the CL predictions have been adjusted for the remainder of this year based on the same reasoning.

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Thanks!

Definitely this - I had a few submissions which I hit just as I got on the ride - they apparently didn’t go through and so the timer was still running when I got off the ride meaning I couldn’t submit as the time was inaccurate. Not sure why the timer wouldn’t stop upon submission attempt.

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I had that same issue.

Same here on the EP rides with no cell service inside like TT and MS

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FWIW, I have an EP plan for 2 weeks from yesterday. It’s predicted CL4, yesterday was CL6. I checked the plan against yesterday’s waits, and it still “works”, since the plan has most of the attractions in the later afternoon when wait times at EP are shorter and less variable.

Only issue was that the optimizer takes a very pessimistic view of early waits at Remy, so it had us entering IG and rope-dropping Gran Fiesta on the way to TT. Had to rearrange and evaluate to force a Remy RD.

We managed to do this more or less. Once I get back to a real keyboard I’ll try to write it up. We got up at 6a. DS’s of 14, 11, and 7 in tow with DW. Then:

Arrived bus stop 705
Bus arrived 7:20
Arrived magic Kingdom at 7:30
One family ahead of us at the taps

Never left the park. 17.5 hours. And it seemed easier than opening and closing EP to be honest. I’ll never open and close EP again. Ever.

The only rides we didn’t do were people mover, JC, and SM.

16 g+'s including 9a for PPF, nabbing drops for splash (10:47) and big thunder (1:17) and getting one in between on the 120m rule, all thanks to bg1.

Stuffed ourselves at liberty tree. Oldest son slept through hall of presidents. Meet 4 princesses, Mickey and Minnie, Aladdin and what’s her face, hid from a downpour at tiki bird room, middle son liked philharmagic so much we went twice, saw enchantment for the first time after DW put down a parade blanket, left the stroller on it, and came back with 10 minutes to spare with everybody hating on us for that.

It was a crazy long day that I’m happy worked out ok. I’ll never do that again either.

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For those concerned about the revised CLs, we did EP yesterday, which TP called a CL5. We didn’t wait in a single line all day.

Showed up at IG around 7:30, and it looked like gates had just opened. Even without a super early start, we were off Remy and on the way to TT before 8:00. I think we had Remy, TT, GotG and Soarin done before 9:30. We did world showcase and F&W from mid morning to mid afternoon, then did the rest of the rides in future world all with basically no wait.

Similar today at AK. Showed up too late to RD FoP, so did Navi (walk on) KS just after 8 (walk on), got breakfast and son and I were able to do Everest 4x at ~9:30, walking on each time. Only real lines were KRR a little after 2pm (posted 45, actual 25) and FoP around 3 (25 posted, into the pre show in less than 20).

I think some of the Lion King shows hit capacity, and the character meet had a line most of the day, but a certain lounge that must not be named had immediate availability, which is what really matters.

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Sounds awesome. I am so excited for next week. Our last trip was May, which is better than major holiday times, but not as good as what I’m seeing now. I’ve never been in Sept.

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Fair warning: it spoils you for any other time!

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So our trip was great and crowds were super low. (9/5-7). MK was rated a 5 on Tues and it just didn’t feel that bad. Granted, I used LL for almost everything, but I was checking wait times when booking and it was mostly in the 30-60 min range, which according to the charts should have been more of a 3 or 4. But I’m not an extreme data nerd, just an amateur one, so maybe that’s why I don’t see it.

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They had said they were bumping the CLs up based on previous underestimations throughout this year, but then the last couple of weeks wait times were very much more like pre-covid late-August/early-September that we’ve seen so I don’t think that bump was really warranted. Maybe a little, but I think they went too far.

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That’s a good observation. And it reminded me of how the data doesn’t align with the crowd levels. Here’s an example from Tuesday at MK:

https://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/crowd-calendar/date/2022-09-06

And here are the metrics used:

https://touringplans.com/magic-kingdom/crowd-levels

You can see that they don’t line up.

I wonder if @fred can help explain this.

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When you average in SDMT and Dumbo, the 5 makes more sense. Actually, I think the “actual” should be calculated as a 4.

I am not crazy at all how how TP defines CLs… particularly toward the upper end. There should be a difference, for example, in how you rate a CL 10 of summer and a CL 10 of Christmas/New Years. They shouldn’t both be a 10! But it is what it is.

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