I’m getting a bit nervous now that my first park day is just a week from Sunday.
I’ve read many a comment essentially declaring that the existing crowd calendars are all using data that is a year old and most likely are inaccurate reflections of the past.
Should I be concerned about my plans and the current arrival/wait time numbers? I really don’t want to have to go back through them all and add “breaks” in order to increase the times for a more accurate picture.
I think a lot of it is a combo of crowds being one or two points higher or lower but people thinking a 6 should be short waits. Just my opinion from comments posted on chat.
I hear you. I have come to grips that a “6” day can still be very busy and congested. I’m mentally prepared for that.
But from a planning perspective, will the inaccuracy throw off my custom tour plan to the point I will end up abandoning it mid day?
MK - 8/17/22 - TP CL 6 (with plenty of reports of 9/10 specifically for this day since party nights surround it)
STEP ARRIVAL WAIT
Mansion 9:36am 16 minutes
If it’s a “10” day and 22 minutes is the right number (making that up) I probably should want to know that. It could cascade and domino enough that we only get through 70% of our plan. I wasn’t a great student but like to score better than a “C”!
I think the issue is less that the data being used is older and more that because of the park reservation system, Disney knows how to keep the “crowd level” pretty consistent to what people will tolerate since they can adjust staffing and capacity.
The MK predictions have been very good, I’d leave that plan alone. I would consider adding in breaks for HS, those predictions have been way off. 2-3 CL consistently the past week or so.
EP and AK have not been off as much, but still underestimated.
Thank you. Good stuff there. That MK day I was most worried about. Still am as we are going for early entry (830a, so 630a wake up I think) all day until evening hours - 1am!!! If we pull this off, I will have to write a trip report. That’s going to be one messed up day for better and worse.
AK not worried as we’re staying all day / plenty of time for hiccups.
EP not worried as we have evening hours to catch up.
Going to HS two days. 8/19 (CL 3) and 8/21 (CL2)! You are feeling those are really 6/5? What does that do to predicted waits?
Looking forward to that report! Will you be using Genie +?
Yep. I guess since I used recent thrill-data, maybe that should help me stay on time / more accurate.
If you want to feel our pain, that plan I made public.
(I think it’s ok I share that right?)
And my G+ “todo” list is:
Now THAT’S a plan. I can’t wait to see how it goes for you all!
On average, looks like about 15 minutes longer standby wait for those top attractions at HS.
I was at HS 7/24. It was a predicted 4 but actual 7. Early entry was scheduled to start at 8 but Rise, MMRT, RnR, and shortly after ToT were all down. I used EE and did not use Genie+. I only did attractions until around 10 since I busted Oga’s, DB7 and shopped before I met a friend at noon. Here is a screen shot of posted/actuals up to 10:
I wouldn’t worry too much about. FL schools start classes next week and the week after next, might be similar for the rest of the country. My guess is that we are at the end of summer and crowds will decrease significantly over the next couple of weeks.
That’s cool, so I can go pull out my submitted Lines timing data? That will be super useful, after the fact, for the TR.
I hope you are correct!
In 2019, CLs were in that same 4, 5, 6, yellow zone for the same dates, and I was painfully surprised on just how busy the parks still were. Those numbers are not going to mentally fool me again!
I take screen shots that day. My example is to show you that with your plan of being at EE regardless of the crowd calendar, you can have short waits. Also, I don’t think I have timed a wait (in the last year) where my wait has been more than the Disney posted time (usually less).
Crowd Calendar update is out @trandall2_796549
Your guess turned out to be right on.
Every year I watch the early august crowds and knock about late august trips. They won’t be 1&2s but you’ll see a dramatic drop soon
I’m scared cuz just two days after I paid off my package all my 1’s and 2’s for the week after Labor Day jumped to a bunch of 4’s and 5’s and even one 6! And if they are under predicting… I am really worried now!
Well, we are going what seems to be the same time as you and I just received the dreaded crowd level updates- crowd levels up across the board for 8/17 - 8/23 so seems your gut was right! Still planning to make the best of it and have a great time through rope drop, Genie+, and Touring plans!