Like others I’m confused as to what we’re discussing.
However maybe this might help. The total number of points sold at any resort is the number of points it takes to book every room for every night of the year.
To calculate that I’m told that DVC count every lock-off 2-bedroom as a 2-bed, not separate studio and 1-bed. Hence the lock-off premium.
So they cannot” over sell”. The Poly and CCV though have a gazillion points from the premium bungalows / cabins which most owners cannot book b/c they don’t have enough points. Poly gets away with it b/c there are lots of studios. CCV have few studios hence booking is hard.
Because of the number of small contracts many people can only book studios and they book fast. That also takes out lock-off 2-beds.
Toughest to book would be small numbers of rooms and cheaper categories: akl value, bwv std, CCV, blt std.
On top of this, there is the complication of where people plan to stay. We have a fairly large number of points, all at SSR - but I generally have very little intention of staying there. SSR represented the best value for money ($/pt, dues rate, expiry) in my view so I bought there with the intention of staying elsewhere. We go for 1 or 2 beds so the availability is much better and not really a problem at 7 months.
The only exception is places like BWV where we can’t fit in the 1 beds and the 2 beds are LOs with no dedicated 2beds - so they go at the same rate as the studios - but even then it’s only Boardwalk view that’s impossible at 7mths. Depends on time of year, ofc.
So depends on your strategy and points/resort isn’t necessary a good guide. I’m guessing judging by the fact that SSR and OKW are often available last minute, quite a lot of people do the above…!
Found this old thread while researching my DVC purchase. Here is how I understand it: In order to estimate studios availability, you need to find the total points to book all the studios as a percentage of all the points for this resort.
Step 1 (labour intensive): find number of points needed to book one studio for the entire year. This will require going over the points chart and multiplying number of days by the seasonal rates. E.g. if Jan 1-31 are at 78 points, Feb 1-28 at 80 points, etc. you would get 78 x 31 + 80 x 28, etc through the year.
Step 2. Multiply the result of Step 1 by number of studios in the resort.
Step 3. Find a percentage of result in step 2 over total number of points in the resort. The higher the percentage, the greater studio availability will be.
Now, this will only give you the result for one resort. To compare, the process needs to be repeated for all resorts (or at least the ones you are interested in).
If anyone is willing to crunch the numbers - I will be very interested to see the results.
Unfortunately there are a couple of extra steps needed.
The above process would also need to include the different “view” categories for each room type, and I’m not sure where the most accurate numbers for those would be.
Then you have the problem of the lock-off premium. How do you calculate that? Do you take the figure for lock-off 2-beds and deduct that number of studios in each “view” category? You can’t book the connecting studios twice, they can only be booked either as a studio or as a 2-bed. I believe DVC use the 2-bed figure.
Honestly I can’t begin to get my head around how to do this.
Someone on Mouseowners tried and decided to go with BCV because there aren’t the different view categories to deal with. He tripped up early on, and when we tried to brainstorm what to do he threw in the towel.