I saw this article the other day. Some believe long Covid could be below 1% for kids. This article has some interesting talking points.
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I’ll try to review that article later today, but usually how they get the % lower is using a larger number of undetected cases. If we want to add in undetected cases, the 38/100k day rate in Orange County is going to be quite a bit larger.
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Following. And I appreciate this very level-headed discussion.
As a parent of 11-year old twins (still a few months away from being able to get the vaccine), I very much sympathize with the OP and others in this thread. While we do not have a WDW trip planned for this year, we do have what I would call our first real vacation since pre-COVID planned for the end of summer.
I have to admit, if we had a WDW trip planned for this summer, I would be in the category of seriously considering cancelling. The flights/airports make me nervous, let alone the uptick in cases combined with these reports of low mask compliance. I mean we are talking about the world’s top destination for kids under 12 – gotta mask up.
Anyway, really appreciating this thread. Will continue to follow. Thanks!
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So most of that article is also citing prevalence estimates around the 5-20% range as well. Some were even higher.
There was one researcher with a study that included 200 kids that tested positive for antibodies out of 1500. That researcher landed here:
“it does mean the number is probably below 10%, a level that would have been picked up in the study. The true figure is perhaps as low as 1%”
So while he speculates it could be as low as 1%, he acknowledges that his study was so small, it doesn’t actually support that. It just provides support to the prevalence being under 10%.
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OP, I’m seeing more and more recommendations that people speak with the primary care doctors regarding recommendations regarding Covid. There is a lot of misinformation and information from both ends of the spectrum on the news and social media (including this forum) and I think that it is causing a lot of confusion. I read an article earlier today interviewing a doctor that works with Covid patients in the hospital. The bottom line is: people aren’t consulting their personal physicians regarding Covid. I know you have already spoken with the physicians, but maybe check in again now that there have been some changes on Delta. I think that will be your best bet on making a decision that is best for your family.
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My DH has said all along that you can manipulate numbers to back up anything you want if you know what your doing. I’m beginning to agree with him. And I’m not just talking about this article.
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This is a good recommendation, if you trust them, and b/c they should know you and your health status. I met w/ my PCM a few weeks back to discuss covid again. Her guidance was based on my individual health status. BUT my MiL disregarded her Oncologist’s recommendation to get vaccinated and instead listened to her pastor who told her not to get vaccinated. Mind you, the oncologist’s treatment plan put her lung cancer into remission; a stellar endorsement if you ask me.
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For some people, data is the most helpful way to try to assess risk.
But for vacation I find I’m less data-driven than when making decisions for things like in-person school or camp (which for my family are more impactful for morale/mental health than vacations generally or especially to a particular destination, YMMV). This is a long way of saying, regardless of how small the statistical risk is to my kids right now, we consider lots more intangibles for things like vacation that are nice to haves but not need to haves (for us, I realize vacations are more crucial to other people due to personality or their daily stressors, so I’m not judging people who treat them more as necessities; we just live in a vacation destination so can do a lot of “fun” stuff locally and that helps).
Anyway my point is that I’m not doing WDW now not so much because of the stats but because I know how I’ll feel being there under current circumstances and I would not enjoy it. I’m glad other people are able to enjoy it now! Especially for the many cast members who depend on those jobs. And because I like reading trip reports!
But not every thing is for everybody, even aside from
Covid times. 1% or 10%, for a personality like mine it doesn’t really matter when I see the photos of the crowds right now. I’d spend my whole vacation on guard and on edge.
It’s been very interesting to read above how everyone else thinks about these things. But this is not public policy and the best way to arrive at that, it’s just a family vacation decision — so there’s no right way or wrong way to think about it, just whatever way winds up with the best vacay for your family! Lots of ideas to draw from above 
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I don’t think anyone knows these odds with respect to long Covid because there is very little definitive out there on long Covid in kids. I’ve seen estimates everywhere from 1% to up to 30% of cases. The information on the brain scans of kids post Covid (even after asymptomatic infection) is scary.
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Great post!
Just saw this article, thought it was relevant to this discussion
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Just want to point out that the doctor in this article is an anesthesiologist, not someone who has recieved extensive training in communicable disease.
It’s important to not just take everyone with a Dr in their name was an expert.
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Agreed! Just wanted to give more info to the OP, the more you know, right? 
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I think I just take the numbers and the symptoms of “long Covid” with a grain of salt. Coughs and fatigue that last for 4 weeks? Anyone who has kids in daycare or preschool has kids who have coughs and snotty noses almost all winter, along with accompanying fatigue and grumpiness. Sounds like life with kids to me. Whenever there is some more concrete data then maybe I’ll be more concerned. 
Until then I am much more inclined to say that if your children don’t have any co-morbidities then enjoy life, doing things to mitigate risk where you can. Wear your seatbelt. Don’t eat raw meat. Cut grapes in half. Wear a mask if you think it helps.
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Long COVID is far more than a lingering cough. Some of the scariest cases include severe organ damage, … heart, lungs, kidneys, etc. People that required lung transplants, those on dialysis, college athletes with such severe heart damage that they don’t know if they will ever play again.
I have two adult friends, both healthy and in their 40’s, who had COVID last spring and are still dealing with it. Thankfully neither suffered from any major organ damage, but one now has fibromyalgia and severe headaches/migraines, and the other completely lost her senses of taste and smell for close to a year. As they started to come back her senses are all screwed up with well loved foods tasting like sulfur or sewage.
Long COVID scares the crap out of me and I am grateful my family is vaccinated!
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I think she’s saying that if they’re including a lingering cough in the percentage of “long Covid,” as well as all the scarier stuff, then it’s not a really meaningful metric. We need to know what is the incidence of the truly permanent / chronic and/or severe long-term impacts.
(I think the consensus is it’s unknown, but probably not a huge % or we’d hear more about it. But still might be worth more measures just given the risks.)
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Yeah, one of my kids had a well-check visit with our pediatrician on Monday and we discussed the prevalence of long Covid. He didn’t have any insights to offer on the published study results, but he did share anecdotal info from his practice. He actually hasn’t had any cases of long Covid yet, but the other main pediatrician in his office has 3 patients with significant enough myocarditis (heart inflammation) that they haven’t been cleared to resume athletics months after having had Covid.
If someone acknowledges the risks and then is comfortable moving forward, that’s understandable to me. But dismissing the risks as not real just sets people up for potential regrets. I’ve heard way too much “I didn’t really think it would happen to me” over the last year.
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We had a trip planned last summer and cancelled because of Covid. My daughter is much older than yours but we rescheduled and went in June (and she brought a friend). I am vaccinated but neither my daughter nor her friend were old enough. For half of our trip, masks were required and for half they were not required. Be prepared that most people will not be wearing masks. This was our first trip after Covid hit and I am so glad we went. It did wonders for not only my daughter’s spirit but mine as well. Wear a mask and use hand sanitizer. I was back and forth about going and am so thankful we did it!
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We had a trip planned for August 21 - 28, which I cancelled this morning. Primary reason for cancelling was the Delta variant - we are a family of six and our DS7 is not yet vaccinated, so it seems like an unnecessary risk. I also assume the numbers will only get worse over the next month.
Second reason is that it seems like the parks are only getting more and more crowded, but are not yet fully operational. As a result, I felt like we were paying for a full vacation but not really getting the value we would expect or even the upside of lower crowds. With the increasing crowds and no FP/FPP, I didn’t think we would really be able to enjoy the parks the way we like to.
Lastly, we had bought Park Hoppers, but with the current rules (2p hopping) and relatively early closing times (though they did add some hours for August) I wasn’t feeling the value was there. I had planned to drop the PH but was really not happy about it, because it meant we wouldn’t be able to make regular trips to Epcot for F&W, which we had planned to do.
It all just added up to “not worth it” for us. We are going to scramble and plan a more out-doors kind of vacation in a lower risk area instead. I feel bad for WDW CM’s - I really want to be able to support a return to normal with my vacation dollars, but I’m afraid things are going to get out of hand again and it’s going to be a setback.
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Man, I really didn’t expect my post to generate so much discussion. Thank you all for weighing in!
(@amvanhoose_701479 : thanks so much for sharing the link from YLE. It was really helpful and a very informative read. )
So people have made a lot of great points in both directions (and thank you all for keeping it civil). I think at the end of the day, Covid boils down to personal risk tolerance. Unfortunately I don’t remember the article, but months ago I read something that was along the lines of “parents are either choosing to send their kids to school or keep them home. And both are right.” Contradictory as that seems, I think it’s very accurate.
To sum up arguments that have been made elsewhere here, kids predominantly seem to be spared from the worst of Covid (which is one thing I will always be eternally grateful for). Not completely, but the vast majority. Leaving long Covid aside, statistically (at least pre-Delta), the risk of covid in kids appears to be similar to the flu. On the other hand, it’s a novel disease who’s true impact we don’t know yet. What if there are long-term effects we’re not aware of? If you really want to ruin your day/night, look up a complication of the measles called subacute sclerosing panencephalitis, or SSPE (have some happy material ready for after). Imagine that with Covid. It’s horrifying.
If I had to sum up my feelings, I’m less worried about my kids getting covid (I’m extremely grateful and lucky to have two healthy kids) and more worried about the unknown effects of it, be that long coin for otherwise. Is it likely that they have a high risk of serious complications from getting infected? No, it certainly doesn’t seem like it. But how much risk is too much risk? 5%? 1%? 0.0002%? I don’t know. And we’re under no illusions that we’d be one of few people wearing masks (and thank you to the people down there now for confirming that), so that’s our expectation.
To sum it up another way, I think all of you are right.
FWIW, both our OB and Pediatrician have given their okay on this trip (though I haven’t talked to the pediatrician in about a week so I don’t know if her opinion has changed), at least insofar as they said it’s our decision and not “no, don’t do that”. I mentioned this before, but our OB is actually going to WDW the week after us with unvaccinated kids, so she’s certainly knowledgable on what’s going on down there. We also put a lot of stock in her opinion for reasons I won’t get into, but she was an incredible blessing during our second pregnancy.
At this point, I still don’t really know where I stand. If I’m honest, I’m frustrated — when we booked this, we always had the expectation of cancelling. We made our ADR’s 60 days out just in case. But then our outdoor dining plan came together and covid numbers were plummeting, and I let myself start to imagine doing this, which I promised myself I wouldn’t do. It’s the hope that kill you, right? Then Delta started boiling over last week, and here we are. Even more than that, if I take a step back, this is such a small thing in the grand scheme of things — my family has its health (knock on wood, long may it last) — that I’m frustrated at being frustrated. That’s life I guess.
Anyway, sorry for rambling. I’ll be honest in saying I’m no closer to a final decision but this discussion has given me lots to think about. My wife and I will sit down at some point in the next few days and weigh everything and go from there. By all means, please continue to weigh in. Really appreciate everyone’s insight. It’s helpful even just to sort out how we feel. But thank you all for being such a great community.
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