Still confused by TP crowd calculation

How does TP calculate actual crowds versus expected crowds in the crowd calendar. Yesterday, I was poking around and went back to the crowd calendar for the days we were at Unversal. I wanted to see actual crowds versus what the end result was.

For the Wednesday we were there, the expected crowds were 2, but the actual was listed as a 4. For Thursday, the crowds were predicted to be a 3, but the actual listed is a 4.

Yet, our experience was quite different. Wednesday, crowds were super light. Almost no wait for most rides most of the time we were there. Thursday, however, we had long waits (relatively speaking) probably 3-4 times longer than we had seen on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Furthermore, the actual crowd for IOA was listed as a 3 (compared to US’s 4), and yet we found lines at IOA to be worse than at US.

Actual CLs are determined based on actual wait times for certain attractions throughout the day. I’m sure that @len or one of the stats guys can provide further detail on how they do this.

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I think this more or less boils down to the numbers are skewed because of how popular Flight of Passage is in Pandora. It doesn’t just affect AK numbers, but all the parks. Word is out that this ride is better than any ride at DW and I feel comfortable saying better than any ride at Universal at this point.

There’s a huge increase in crowds in Jan/Feb whereas statistical data isn’t being consistent with it.

A couple of points:

The crowd levels are done on a per-park basis, not a per-resort basis. Thus, it’s possible for 50-minute waits at USF to be a crowd level of 5, and 50-minute waits at IOA to be a 7.

Also, the crowd levels are for specific attractions, timed between 10 am and 5 pm.

Here’s an example of the daily report I get for all of Universal. It shows the attractions and their individual crowd levels.