This post is about Soarin’ and wait times for the standby que at park opening.
I posted this on chat, but wanted to see if I could get some input here.
For some reason, TP is predicting that for our dates (5/21/18) that the wait will be 5 minutes less at 9:30 than it is at 9:15. Check it out.
Why would this be? @len or @fred or @Brian ? or @brklinck, I know you care about the science behind it all.
If anyone cares why 15 minutes matters: I would love to rope drop the Character Spot first so that my DS3’s first park experience is meeting characters. If we’ll have only a 17 minute wait at 9:30 for Soarin’ (rather than a 22 min wait at 9:15) then it makes sense for us to hit the Character Spot first… if not, well then it doesn’t.
My guess is because of the initial rush. We did something similar on 3/9 At HS. We signed up for Jedi Training then got back in with the rope drop crowd before they let us loose for TSM. Once we got back to Pixar Place the line was really backed up mainly because of people merging to enter the queue. So we popped into meet Buzz and Woody with only one other person in front of us. When we walked out the line for TSM was shorter than before so we got in line. It was still only 8:58 on a 9am open. We waited less than 20 mins for TSM which we were happy with.
Have you watched the recent touring plans video about rope drop at Epcot? Len and 3 or 4 others test riding the headliners at varying times right around rope drop. I thought it was fascinating and gave you a really good idea of what the wait times are if you are in the front of the rope drop pack vs. middle of the pack vs. after the first wave ends for Soarin. Maybe this link will work if you haven’t seen it.
I did see that, and it’s very helpful. Thanks @rckstrscat.
Fred’s experience at Soarin’ makes sense to me. What I can’t make sense of is an initial surge and then a slight drop in wait times before the big uptick. Someone on chat compared it to the Rope Drop video they did of MK and how there was a slight lull at 7DMT in between the first waves of guests arriving that morning.
First off, a 5 min dip is negligible. But, if you really wanted an explanation I have a few possibilites. 1) Not all theatres are truly ready-to-go at park opening. At 9:15 there still may be some checks being done on the third theatre, by 9:30 all three should be through their first few runs and the small gain in efficiency drops the posted wait. 2) 9:30 is likely the first time that the posted time is adjusted by cast members. The “dip” of 5 mins is really just the first adjustment down from the starting posted time which is likely arbitrary.
Thanks for the answer @fred. Sounds like - either way - that it’s safe for us to spend 10 minutes of valuable early morning touring time on a stop at the Character Spot, and that arriving at Soarin’ at 9:15 or 9:30 won’t matter that much.