Significant Crowd Level Increase From Past 5 Years Historical Data

Looking at the historical crowd level data since 2010 (and years prior but I know LINES was implemented in late 2009), the last week in January has consistently been ranked with daily park crowd levels from 1-3 with the occasional outlying 4 or 5 throughout the years. We are planning travel the same time in 2015 but there has been a significant jump in crowd level predictions, with most days seeing a 3 point increase. There are no new events added to the calendar and I was wondering if anyone had any thoughts as to why there would be such a dramatic change? Thank you :slight_smile:

Recovering economy means more people going on vacation.

I mean maybe @DarthD can answer this for you!!!

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The ranking for each day has adjusted a few times since it started. There used to be 36 level one days, 36 level two, etc but now they follow more of a bell curve, @len do historical crowd calendars show their original rank, or do they reflect the updates?


DarthD, does that mean that you’re feeling as ADD as I am at the moment? :wink:

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@emb_actress: always.

also, this question leans toward requiring math and stuff. It’s too early for math.

That is an awesome question! It would be great to know if the historical data reflects actual park attendance or predicted crowd level. Thanks for asking! P.S. I agree, waffles are amazing :slight_smile:

I am going the same week and have the same question. Some have said since the crowds are based on wait times for attractions, and because FPP has affected that somewhat, that is the reason for the increase. However, it stands to reason if that is the case that the scale must be modified again. Otherwise, there are no 1 and 2 days, and there should be days higher than 10. I will say I had a pretty easy time getting all my ADRs today…the availability was good, even for very popular restaurants.

As @Keithloveswaffles said, crowd levels used to be divided into 10 segments, with approximately 36 days in each. So the 36 days with the lowest crowds would be considered 1 days, the next 36 days “2” days, etc. However, with the latest version of the crowd calendar, that has been changed to reflect average wait times between 10 and 5. Therefore, there will be fewer “1” days, and more 4, 5, and 6 days. I’ll see if I can find the post where @Len explains it.

Here’s the link to the thread 7/10 crowds
@Len 's post is#7, I believe, and the direct link to the blog with the explanation is


Thank you so much! That’s a perfect clarification! I appreciate everyone’s feedback :slight_smile:

I was able to get all my reservations too! Makes me have high hopes for a quiet and cool trip to the Kingdom :slight_smile:

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