Day 21 Timeline 12/25/19
Link to OP
6:30am Park opens; held at HB
7:00am MDE starts issuing BGs
8:30am MDE starts issuing Backup BGs
12:00pm MDE stops issuing BGs
Today BGs were open for longer than they have been lately - 8:30am for initial and noon for Backup. They got up to 165, which is not a record but is very good.
I have added a link to Steve’s post with BG data to the lead post above. There’s some data he tracks that I don’t but other stuff I have that he doesn’t, so I’ll keep going with this for now.
Important Strategy Update: @MOJoe reported on Chat this morning that he was able to access a BG more quickly by pressing the “My Status” button rather than “Join Boarding Group.” Apparently the app refreshes the data for “Join Boarding Group” every couple of minutes but by selecting “My Status,” you are forcing an immediate refresh to Disney’s server. Using this method he was able to access BGs at exactly 7:00am. I recommend trying this until further data proves otherwise.
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We now have 21 days of days to play with…here is a Christmas present for all the spreadsheet lovers out there!
Over the 21 days,
Boarding Group reservations on average are gone within 1 hour and 16 minutes. The slowest was 2 hours and 14 minutes and the fastest was 15 minutes.
Boarding Groups: on average, 9.39 BG/hr are being called. The slowest rate was 5.09 BG/hr and the fastest was 14.59 BG/hr. The table below shows the minimum BG that was called, the maximum BG that was called and the average BG that was called at each hour and half hour over the past 21 days.
| TIME | MIN | MAX | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6:30 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| 7:00 | 0 | 22 | 6 |
| 7:30 | 0 | 26 | 17 |
| 8:00 | 0 | 30 | 21 |
| 8:30 | 0 | 34 | 24 |
| 9:00 | 0 | 42 | 27 |
| 9:30 | 0 | 46 | 31 |
| 10:00 | 13 | 53 | 36 |
| 10:30 | 14 | 60 | 40 |
| 11:00 | 15 | 64 | 45 |
| 11:30 | 19 | 74 | 49 |
| 12:00 | 27 | 80 | 53 |
| 12:30 | 30 | 83 | 57 |
| 13:00 | 34 | 93 | 62 |
| 13:30 | 39 | 98 | 65 |
| 14:00 | 43 | 108 | 70 |
| 14:30 | 43 | 113 | 74 |
| 15:00 | 46 | 120 | 79 |
| 15:30 | 50 | 133 | 84 |
| 16:00 | 54 | 140 | 88 |
| 16:30 | 58 | 143 | 92 |
| 17:00 | 61 | 155 | 98 |
| 17:30 | 65 | 163 | 103 |
| 18:00 | 65 | 165 | 108 |
| 18:30 | 65 | 171 | 112 |
| 19:00 | 68 | 181 | 116 |
| 19:30 | 72 | 192 | 119 |
| 20:00 | 82 | 192 | 122 |
| 20:30 | 82 | 192 | 123 |
| 21:00 | 82 | 192 | 123 |
| 21:30 | 82 | 192 | 124 |
| 22:00 | 82 | 192 | 124 |
| 22:30 | 82 | 192 | 124 |
Backup Boarding Groups: tend to move differently and we only have 10 days of data to play with. On average, BBG tend to start reservations at 7:47am. The earliest they started was 7:16am and the latest they started was 8:30am. On average, the reservation window for BBG lasts 1 hour and 53 minutes. The quickest they were gone was 17 minutes and the longest they lasted was 3 hours and 35 minutes.
They start calling Backup boarding groups to the ride on average at 4:35pm. The earliest they have started calling them was at 2:35pm and the latest was when they were not called at all on Dec. 16.
The last Backup boarding groups to ride have started their 2 hour window on average by 7:26pm. They have reached the last group as soon as 5:35pm and as late as 8:05pm. It looks like they are trying to stop Boarding groups 2 hours before park close or if they run out of groups. Which ever comes first.
The rate that they call BBGs is on average 14.65 BBG/hr. The slowest they have been called is at a rate of 7.24 BBG/hr and the fastest they have been called is 20.0 BBG/hr (this rate looks like an anomaly).
Not sure if the BBG size is smaller than the regular BG as they tend to move through the ride at a faster rate 8 out of the 9 times we have data for.
Happy Holidays!
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Wow! More amazing data to have! (Thinking ahead to trying to book a non-conflicting Jedi training on our visit after we have our BG.). This forum rocks!
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This data is great. Thank you for doing this!
Day 22 Timeline 12/26/19
Link to OP
5:42am Park opens; guests held at HB
6:00am Published park opening; MDE starts issuing BGs
6:15am MDE starts issuing Backup BGs
8:01am MDE stops issuing BGs
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Today was the first day with a 6am official park opening. Initial BGs were gone within 15 minutes but Backup BGs were available for two hours.
Apparently there was an issue where people were not recognized as being in the park after tapping in because today they decided not to scan fingerprints. Lots of angry people at Guest Services complaining that they couldn’t get a BG due to the technical issue. They will probably fix this somehow before tomorrow, but I recommend stationing yourself near a CM at park opening just in case (and keep your whole party together so you can prove you’re all in the park).
I saw reports of people arriving as late as 5:25am and still getting through the tapstiles well before 6am, so you should still be safe arriving between 5:00-5:30am as I previously advised for a 6am opening. You could have arrived as late as 7:30am and still had a decent shot at a Backup BG that will be called.
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Less words, more data.
Below is a trend of when they call BGs throughout the day.
- Min = the lowest they have called (Dec. 5 - Dec .26)
- Max = the highest they have called (Dec. 5 - Dec. 26)
- Avg(All) = the average BG called (Dec. 5 - Dec. 26)
- Avg(7Day) = the average BG called over the past 7 days (Dec. 20 - Dec. 26)
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Now that Steve is tracking all the data I have been, I’m going to stop updating the table at the top and refer back to his thread. I may still comment here on the general trends, and will continue to update the lead post with the latest advice.
Today ALL BGs ran out by 6:15am! Initial BGs were gone in 4 MINUTES! These early open CL 10 days are going to be insane. I expect things will quiet down the week after New Year’s, but for now, make sure you are there 30-60 minutes before scheduled opening.
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4 minutes is insane!
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I just got notice from TP that the first full week in January has moved from 8 am to 7am opening. I am so bummed. We are doing HS on Tuesday the 7th and my family was OK with a 7:15-7:30 time frame, but I haven’t broken it to them about 6:15 to 6:30. I may be going on my own.
Have them still show up at 7:15am. They might still get an evening BG and you could ask a CM to switch yours to their time if you’d rather wait and ride with them.
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thats a great idea. I may even be able to get them there at 7. we are staying at CBR and was hoping to take advantage of the skyway to get there without a lot of hassle
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How many people are in a BG? I’m going tomorrow with my family and I am scared out of my skin that we won’t get to ride after dragging them there at 4:30. Did everyone who was in the park at 6AM today get a BG?
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The hours for our week just got moved to 7am. Not sure I’m a fan…
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I doubt everyone who was there got a BG, but I don’t think you have to arrive earlier than 5:00am if that helps, and you might be ok at 5:30am. The next few days there are no guarantees though - just too many people to reckon with. If it’s important to you, maybe slip away and let your family sleep while you get a BG and ride when you’re called.
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7am openings haven’t been too bad lately if you are just there by 7am (and are ok with a Backup BG). As long as it is not during the holiday break you should be fine!
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I got the email 
I’m not a fan either but I have a feeling GE will be busy so maybe it’s a good thing. I wish I could go to the extra magic hours on Sunday night but I’m not Staying on property.
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Thank you for your work in tracking and summarizing so many days of data. I watched your data closely as we inched towards our arrival at HS on December 18th.
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We get in the afternoon of the 5th so could go to HS EMH that evening, but it’s a CL 10 that day so I think we’ll stay away. We have first half day of 1/7 and all day 1/9 scheduled at HS so that should be plenty of time. Pending BG weirdness. Plus evening of 1/6 but that’s irrelevant to BG.
Hmmm…if Boardwalk Bakery opens at 630am, probably going to need to skip that for 7am opening to hope for earlyish BG. Would be nice to get ROTR out of the way in the 7th to give us more flexibility on the 9th…
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