Yeah, they are guessing wrong. With approx. 120 BGs per day that would put the ride capacity at 60,000, or 5,000 per hour, when in reality the ride can reportedly handle up to 1700 per hour. I’d put the BGs at around 100-125 on average. It’s possible Disney allows number per BG to slide a bit in either direction to make it harder to estimate park attendance and to account for changes in conversion ratio later in the day.
1 Like
Generally, SDD & rest of TSL, then ToT & RnRC if you want to do them, and MFSR later in the day. I rode it with a 25 minute wait at 8pm on Monday. The park lends itself well to 1 long day with a midday break if you follow that order. We were slow and spent lots of time getting breakfast and coffee, but still did TSMM, RnRC (FP), watched a show, and rode RoTR before our 11:45 lunch. Came back in the evening to ride ToT with SDFP, and did everything we wanted in Galaxy’s Edge (including Oga’s, DB7, and finding all the things DS’s droid could activate).
3 Likes
So with a 10hour day 1700 X10 = 17000 which is about Half the average intake to HS
So only about half the people each day will get to ride if thats right. Which must be a killer for a new ride
1 Like
Yesterday, we arrived at 8:45 and got BBG 119. We weren’t that hopeful that our BG would be called because we had an 8:15 pm ADR at Storybook Dining. We had FPP for SDD, Star Tour, and Muppets. I didn’t really finalize a TP for HS because of the uncertainties of GE rides. But I had a general idea. It was a drizzly morning and a cold day.
After getting BG, we went to use our FPP for SDD and then did a 15 minute SB for TSM. We shared a breakfast bowl and Christmas tart at Woody’s. Line was short but we did mobile ordering. Service was fast and food was yummy. We toured Toystory Land before going Star Tours FPP. The queue was so warm.
We checked wait time for Olaf Meet and Greet, 10 minutes. When we were done, the wait was 40 minutes!
It was very cold. We went to Trolley Cafe for hot drinks and shared a carrot cake cookie. 
We were just going to tap in for Muppets. But the thought of being in a warm room for 30 minutes was too much of a draw!
Checking Lines posted times, we decided to SB SR. We waited less than 55 minutes, eating our packed lunch in line. That’s where I left my phone, in one of the 28 pods! The exits to the pods all look the same when I tried to go back! It was after 1 after we talked to the ride’s CM about my lost phone.
While in line for SR, I scored a ToT FPP for 1:20. There were other FPPs but for after 6 pm. We hiked across the park to ToT. At the 2:31 drop, while boarding the elevator to ToT, DS scored another FPP for ToT! That was the only Tier 1 FPP available.
We did a 45 minute SB for RNR.
We checked Lines and did a 20 minute SB for TSM.
We returned to ToT to use our FPP.
It was 5 and this is when DH noticed that they were already calling BG 116. We were 119.
We shared a churro and a cream cheese pretzel (delicious as promised by @Randall1028). Since my phone was still lost, nobody else got the push notification that our BG was called. (When I got my phone back later, I saw the push notification came at 5:29.) DH checked his MDE and saw that they were calling through BG 120!
We hiked up to GE. People were crowded around the entrance with hopes their BG would be called. They scanned our bands and we walked and walked and walked.
We had no idea how long we would need to wait in the queue and we were bookended by our 8:15 ADR. I counted it a blessing we already made it this far. I warned my family that it could go down while we are in line or we may have to bail to go to our ADR. Everyone was looking forward to a good dinner.
We kept on queuing and queuing and queuing. Finally, we made it to the transport and the door opened to the room with storm troopers. Very cool! We were ushered to interrogation and started queuing again! We glanced apprehensively at the time and each other. It was around 6:30. Really, the wait for interrogation wasn’t that long but we weren’t sure if there would be another intermediate step before the actual ride. Our hearts were heavy that we would need to bail or the ride would go down.
They lined us up for interrogations and we finally loaded unto the ride! It was so exciting!!! With a civil and a mechanical engineer in the family and an aspiring aerospace engineer in the family, we were amazed with the technology and moving pieces, and totally can understand why the ride was going down so often.
From the first resistance in the queue to getting off the ride it was about 55 minutes. And GE is so cool at night.
From 8:45 am - 7:15 pm, we got on all the rides except Aliens (We could have but left it for the little ones). We got on ToT and TSM twice! We got everything we wanted done except the night shows. We didn’t feel rushed. The two extra ToT FPP helped. We were content. Well, another couple of rides on SDD and RNR would have made it even better. Our day required us to crisscross the park several times but HS isn’t that big.
This morning, I had to RD Urgent Care. 
I have acute bronchitis! That’s why I have time to type this.
8 Likes
Geeze! Get better soon!
(I liked that you enjoy the pretzel, not that you’re sick. )
2 Likes
Day 15 Timeline 12/19/19
Link to OP
6:05am @jamiebaldwin716 arrives at HS
6:17am @AlyQ through security held at tapstiles
6:31am Park opens; guests held at Chinese Theater
6:42am DIS user maciemouse arrives at HS
6:45am Skyliner begins operation
6:57am Jamie through tapstiles
6:59am Maciemouse through tapstiles
7:00am Published park opening; MDE starts issuing BGs; AlyQ - BG 8
7:01am Jamie - BG 20; Maciemouse - BG 29; DIS user Pharmgirl123 - BG 37
7:04am DIS user Eminemille BG - 57
7:10am DIS user Yipyip arrives at HS
7:20am Yipyip through tapstiles - BG 85
7:58am AlyQ (BG 8) joins queue
8:15am MDE starts issuing Backup BGs (106+)
8:48am AlyQ completes ride
11:00am MDE stops issuing BGs
3 Likes
Thanks everyone for your data! I’ve started the timeline for today and it looks like people arriving between 6:00-6:30am are doing just fine getting morning BGs. Next week when 6am openings start, I would recommend arriving between 5:00-5:30am. Personally I would show up at 5:45am cause I value my sleep and I think you’d still get a decent BG due to other people thinking the same thing!
Another weird thing - MDE was showing Backup Boarding Group availability until almost 11am. I’ll be checking around to get the exact time, but that is pretty remarkable. Not to say everyone who gets one will ride, but @stlouie’s experience yesterday (8:45am arrival - BG 119 called around 5:35pm) is reason for hope! You can be a lazy bum and still have a good chance to ride if it doesn’t break down!
ETA: I found a Disboard user who arrived at HS at 6:42am, was through tapstiles by 6:59am, and got BG 29! She must have chosen a good security line because others who arrived around the same time took a few more minutes to get through, but still got a good BG. More good news for those who value their sleep!
4 Likes
what do you think would be a good time to arrive for January 7th or 8th when the opening time is supposed to go back to 8 am? I have convinced my family we need to be there by 6:45 at the latest, but now I am wondering if even 7:30 might be fine. Thanks in advance for your thoughts. I have truly enjoyed the analysis that you are providing. It is the first read of the day!
3 Likes
Seems like the new strategy is to get yourself into the park before 7:00 AM with enough time to wander around and make sure you have a place with a strong cell or wifi signal, then be ready to check in immediately at 7:00. It seems if you’re ok if you do that, but if you’re a couple minutes late, then you’ll end up with a late morning or early afternoon group.
3 Likes
We don’t know how many people are in a group, but if capacity is 1,700 per hour and they call on average 10 BGs per hour, that would imply 170 people per BG. However, there are some reports that they are running at a lower capacity (maybe 1,000 riders per hour) so that would imply 100 people per BG. Sometimes they call as many as 20 BGs in an hour (as they did between 10-11am today) so that leads me to believe the 100 number is closer to the truth. However, they may get a lower than 100% return rate on BGs when called - some crazy people may decide not to ride. I doubt that has a material affect right now though.
Today, if you arrived 45 minutes before park opening, you would have had as good a chance as anyone of getting the very first BG issued. You would definitely get a morning BG if you had a working phone or approached a CM.
It’s hard to say, but I’d recommend arriving at least an hour before opening unless further data reveals that to be unnecessary (or insufficient). Keep checking back closer to your trip!
1 Like
Yep - it looks like today everyone who arrived prior to park opening got a BG that was called before 11am! They’ve been plowing through BGs today. Already up to 80 at 12:30pm. Even Disboard user Yipyip, who arrived at HS at 7:10am (i.e., not even past the turnstiles until 7:20am), got BG 85.
3 Likes
One of the bloggers reported being in a transport shuttle that had more people than in days past. I got the feeling those were built for more passengers than I traveled with into space, so this seems like more anecdotal evidence that the ride is operating at greater capacity than it was over the first week or so.
2 Likes
Noooooooo. I’m so sorry you are sick 
Your day at HS sounded perfect with a lovely ending at SD. I’ll be praying you are quickly feeling better.
2 Likes
On our way back to AOA to nap but I forgot to post that I’d grabbed back up BG under my H and DS2. I got BG134 at 10:04am. I highly doubt we’ll be called but you never know.
1 Like
The slope of the BG curve today seems to be trending at the same rate as yesterday. The same slope means the number of BG/hour are similar to yesterday. The only difference today is they started letting people on the ride 30 minutes earlier. That is why it looks like they are moving faster than yesterday.
They increased rate of BGs around 10:30 to 11:00 today may be explained by people just not returning to the ride quick enough. Therefore Disney calls more BGs to keep the queue full.
What a great day so far.
1 Like
I am thinking you will be called around 7:00-7:30pm tonight.
2 Likes
That makes sense. A lot of people probably left the park thinking they wouldn’t have to show up till afternoon and then were scrambling to get back when they were unexpectedly called early.
1 Like
Anyone know if there is any leeway being given with FPP and ADR’s when it comes to conflicting boarding groups? I’ve got a group of 8 and our HS day is Wed 1/15. We plan on being there an hour before official park open time, but if we don’t get a morning boarding group, I’m worried about fastpass timing for later in the day.
Currently, we’ve got:
12:00 - Star Tours FPP
1:25 Group splits, half to RnRC and half to TSM for FPP
3:45 Oga’s reservation for all 8
4:15 Indiana Jones FPP (not particularly worried about this, it’s practically a throwaway)
My concern is about if we get a boarding group that’s called between 2:30 and 3:30… I’ve seen reports that Oga’s can get pretty backed up and have a half-hour wait past your ADR time. I’m also seeing reports that RotR can take up to 90 minutes depending on how many are in the queue. My nightmare scenario is missing one because of the other (and getting charged for missing the Oga’s ADR)… any stories of cast members moving an ADR or BG to prevent conflicts?
3 Likes
CMs have been very helpful shifting and/or honoring ADRs due to RotR BGs. Just approach a CM either at RotR or at Oga’s after the ride and ask for assistance and they’ll find a way to accommodate you. Even if the ADR is outside HS they will generally fix it for you.
3 Likes
Thanks so much! I’m the experienced planner for my group (most of them haven’t been to Disney since '96) and this BG uncertainty is throwing me for a loop. This thread and everyone posting have given me so much more peace of mind.
2 Likes