Recent visitors: did you get COVID in Orlando?

I’ve heard many similar stories this year, where some household members caught COVID, but not all. That is a comforting thought.

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FWIW, here are some stats on that.

It helps me to think of it as a series of dice rolls. Each interaction with a positive person is a dice roll. With a household member, that’s a lot of dice rolls. But there are things you can do to reduce the number of dice rolls or change the number of sides on the dice.

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Five in my house and all five got it at different times, all vaccinated. DH Aug 2021, DD January 2022 (got it in college and had to come home to us), Me February 2022, DS June 2022, other DS August 2022.

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Wow. And they all tested each time and negative?

This is something that my MIL needs a lesson in. DW has tried to explain many times, but it doesn’t seem to sink in.

We recently turned down an invitation from a cousin for a 30+ person indoor dinner at the cousin’s house. My MIL said “I don’t understand why you won’t go to the family dinner, but you were ok with (DD7) having a friend over after school.” … umm, those are very different roles of the dice.

Then of course there is her common refrain when we turn down a group event … “I don’t understand why you are ok with the kids going to school, but won’t go to this.” … unmm, risk is additive.

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Yeah, that’s when I try to explain it as a risk budget. “We are using almost our entire risk budget for school and work and other necessities. Unless either case rates come down or there are better risk mitigations in those places, we have very little risk to spend anywhere else.”

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We were just on the Wish last weekend. DW and I went to WDW after the cruise and had no issues with covid. We went on the cruise some good friends. They decided to go WDW before the cruise. They tested 2 days before embarking and were negative, started to feel symptoms the first night at sea and tested positive and ended up having to spend the rest of their cruise in the cabin.

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That sucks for them. Ouch.

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My family mostly all had it at different times too. Middle child had it in January, oldest had it in May, husband had it late July and in the only case of passing it on, infected our youngest before he had symptoms (so we didn’t know to isolate him). I had it last and have not re-infected anyone. Older 2 have had their new boosters now so I hope we are all covered for a bit.

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That’s so interesting.

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This.

One thing the series of dice rolls model helps me conceptualize is that in the long run, it’s the frequent, risky dice rolls that matter most. Occasional, non-risky dice rolls become almost immaterial.

Still, there are no guarantees - It’s about managing the odds, and then hoping for the best.

QFT!

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Human intuition is notoriously bad at understanding probability. This leads to things like the “law of averages” which are baseless but make for good party stories. People who understand probability are called actuaries and risk managers, and consequently no fun at parties. :sunglasses:

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Sorry about your friends. That’s rough.

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Yes, apparently we’re pretty good at isolating from each other! We’ve never had family transmission. I wouldn’t have done it any other way, but it did result in so many separate quarantine periods! I almost wish we had all had it at once. My DS who has never tested positive has had to take so many tests and miss so many days of school.

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Just to give a little bit of encouragement, my DH and I did NOT get sick after our recent trip. We did not take any extra precautions (masks) and just used normal hand washing/sanitizer, especially before eating, don’t pick your nose, etc. Most people who don’t get sick won’t go around talking about it. So here is one for the “didn’t get sick” column.

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Hey now. Actuary here, well former before kids, and I hope that some of my friends here would vouch that I’m at least a little fun :joy:

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You’re very fun!!

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I second the you’re very fun motion!

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That is true. I’ve realized my problem is that I do generally have a good feel for probability and definitely science but also am a fairly big risk taker coupled with a personal worldview of people being responsible for themselves, including their health. That leaves me full of conflict with just about everyone, and I’m exhausted and need covid to not be a thing anymore. Too much to ask? :joy:

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Very fun!

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