Rain percentages

We are going to be at Disney next week, and forecast I saw has 30-35% chance or precipitation each day. This time of year in Orlando, does that mean rain all day, or rain for an hour and then probably good rest of day?

Trying to plan accordingly (ponchos, umbrella, etc.)

It’s Florida being Florida.

It may rain here and there for short amounts of time over the course of the day, most likely in the afternoon

Check Wunderground.com

They tell you the percentage by hour.
I also like to look at the predicted rainfall for that day. So, if it says 50% chance of rain, and predicted rainfall of 0.01, then I don’t worry about it.

Also, Florida is infamous for its 2pm rains.

Also keep in mind that it can be down-pouring in Epcot, but Magic Kingdom doesn’t get a drop! Just be prepared for short cloudbursts.

It is a bit more bothersome these days with the lines extending outside far more than in the past, and them limiting how many people they allow inside shops, etc. In August, while we were at Disney Springs, it started raining, and so the shops literally LOCKED their doors to prevent people from coming inside to escape the rain because of social distancing.

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It is funny but I had a Lyft driver last year that told me her husband shared that in Florida when they say 35% they mean 35% of an area will get rain. She thought that was crazy but she looked it up and in fact some of the news stations were reporting that way.

After that conversation I thought “no way that could be right” but then I did find some reports on it.

In Massachusetts when they say 50% chance of rain it means “there is a 50/50 chance it will rain”. What some people in Florida are saying “50% of this area will have rain today and 50% will not”.

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This could affect the rain percentages for next week


This is the case in MO as well, tho I’m not sure it’s widely understood.

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Also the case in MI.

Or maybe it depends on the source? Weather.com vs Apple’s weather app.

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Could be. I use nws.com and they say 50% means half the locations.