Predicting the future. Rooms and fast passes


#1

I was doing some reading about some of the new hotel space that is being added to WDW property, and this has had me thinking about the future.

I know. No one can predict the future…particularly where Disney is concerned. So this is just some conjecture, really.

Anyhow, it seems to me that right now, one of the main selling points of staying on property is the availability of the 60 day FPP window. But as more and more rooms fill up, including new ones being added, this will continually water down the advantage of this 60 day window. Greater throngs of people will be fighting over the best FP availability. In the meantime, the number of actual rides to use those FPP don’t really seem to be moving upwards very much. Fact is, across FOUR parks, Disney has fewer rides than most single amusement parks. By some counts, they have as few as 1/3 as many rides.

So, where does the value go? Pretty soon, those who are offsite will have almost nothing left, except scraps (which tends to be true anyhow now), but those staying on site will now have greater competition than now.

Of course, there is a “pay to play” structure already in place. Concierge level folks essentially pay extra to have 90 days. So, will we start to see that concept trickle down?

I can imagine that we’ll start to see those in deluxe hotels getting 75 day FPP access, mid range will be 60 day, and value will end up with 45 day (or something tiered like that). This would push more people toward the deluxe resorts.

What do you all think? What other implications do you see of the continual increase in on-site resorts?


#2

I have no idea but I think you’re probably in the right track, sadly. I do know this: Disney does nothing without great thought and planning (IT issues not withstanding). So the one thing g we can know is that they have plans for that.

And now, we wait…


#3

The future you describe is already here. Disney seriously eroded the value of being an on-site guest when it extended EMH and 60-day fastpass access to guests of the so-called Good Neighbor hotels. An “experiment” that has been extended into 2019. Then they decided to charge on-site guests a nightly parking fee to, as the Disney spokesdrone put it, bring WDW hotels in line with industry standards. “Complimentary use of the Disney transportation system” has always been a pig in a poke since, as far as I know, not one monorail, bus, or boat passenger has ever been asked for proof of guest status or denied access for lack thereof. There’s relatively little exclusivity remaining for WDW hotel guests to lose. No offense, but you’re closer to Josephus than you are Nostradamus on this one.


#4

We like to stay off site. We like having space and everyone having their own bed and room. But, that means FPs in 30 days unless I book a ‘throwaway’ room. That’s expensive for 30 extra days of FP availability. Or maybe not?

This will be our last trip until, years from now, there are grandchildren in our family. But then, who knows, maybe our kids will veto WDW for their kids because they are sick of it and see through the fantasy. Things are starting to feel more like Las Vegas than paradise. It’s all illusion designed to take your money.


#5

As a club level guest who intends to buy those 90 day fp for at least some of the time we’re there, I have to agree with @paulleewatkins that the future is already here (props for mentioning historical figures & for assuming people will know what you mean, this forum seems to be a cut above, I am happy to say, having only been back here for about two months after my long hiatus).:grinning: Besides the passes, we are also going to do at least one fireworks desert party and utilize Minnie Vans prn. we don’t visit often and I intend to maximize our time here.

Anyway, Disney is aiming for people who are spendy, but also those who are spendy over a long period of time. I think they’re also doing things to discourage locals and people who are booking short trips. it’s less overhead for them that way- much cheaper to keep someone in a room or sell one 10-day ticket than have to turn over the room and sell two 5-day tickets. I expect all of this to get worse as they amass more data. I bet they can’t hire analysts fast enough to keep up with what they get from the Magic Bands alone.

They are (or want to be) a high-end destination resort- a place where people come for at least a week, prepared to spend intensely (since they don’t come all the time) over that week or two. The new Star Wars hotel and the Lakeside Lodge are both going to be deluxe. Heck, the Star Wars hotel will probably be its own super-deluxe category. I better start saving now1


#6

I think Disney could greatly improve the value proposition of its on-site hotels by sending each guest home with a stylish pair of gabardine slacks.


#7

Pants? :jeans:


#8

bateman-humanity


#9

I’ve suspected this for some time now. Especially with regard to local annual passholders. My theory is that the spending patterns of locals, passholders, and frequent short-timers, while certainly contributing to overall revenue, do not contribute as much to overall profits as the less frequent, longer-term guests. For example (admittedly oversimplified for the sake of discussion), a Florida resident within commuting distance will pay $550.61 to renew his Gold pass (the most expensive FL resident pass). For that price he can enter all four parks every day for but all about four weeks of the year. He can pack his own snacks, drink from the water fountains, ride all the rides, and see all the shows. And at the end of the year Disney has made $550.61 off of that passholder. Now the truth is that passholder is probably purchasing some food and drink here and there, but he’s not renting hotel rooms, probably not dropping loads on souvenirs and other merchandise, probably not splurging at every table service restaurant he can get an ADR for. No doubt there are locals and passholders who spend more than others, but on average I doubt very seriously they’re hemorrhaging cash like the family on their once every decade or once in a lifetime splurge vacation. Locals and frequent short-timers would logically tend to be more savvy and harder to induce to excess.

For the same amount of effort to host and entertain each guest I just don’t believe that locals make it worth Disney’s while like they used to. I’d be surprised if ticket sales in general do much more than keep the lights on. I believe Disney is making the bulk of its profit off the overpriced hotels, overpriced meals, overpriced snacks, overpriced merchandise, overpriced add-ons (e.g., dessert parties), and overpriced up-sells (e.g., extra fastpasses for concierge guests). And it’s not local guests who are buying most of that stuff.

Of course I could be totally wrong, but my theory seems to fit the evidence.


#10

Inoperative statement.


#11

When I was younger (before the advent of the internet as we know it today), I used to keep a dictionary next to my chair so I could look up unfamiliar words while I was reading. From time to time I might have to take notes so I could look something up at the library. I still do essentially the same thing, the internet just makes everything so much quicker and easier. It’s awesome to be able to highlight a word or a phrase, right click, and select “lookup.”

All that is to say that I hope I didn’t come off as a snob. I’m essentially just a moderately well read hayseed who still has to look up words at about the same rate he did 30 years ago.


#12

no! Not a snob, I’m so sorry if you thought that’s what I meant. but really, this forum is a cut above, very nice people with diverse interests and pretty darn sharp. That’s hard to find on the interwebs.

I use to keep the same types of lists, I ran across one the other day. Here are the words; inimical, specious, ephemeral, repository, simulacra. I would bet this list is at least 10 years old. :slightly_smiling_face:


#13

I’m afraid I don’t know what you mean.


#14

I’ve looked up all of those words. A couple of them more than once.

And no apologies necessary. Just a ham-fisted attempt at hayseed humor. The hayseed part is serious, though. I live along a dirt road on land where our cows used to graze when I was a kid (or child, if one prefers). And before anyone asks we’ve had indoor plumbing here for quite some time.


#15

haha, you don’t have to tell me. I grew up in Wyoming.
No, the mail does not come by Pony Express.

But I wanted to live where there were lots of people, so I moved to Montana.


#16

I’ve been to both states, so I know why that’s funny.

I grew up in Alabama thinking I was from the country. Then I moved to the extreme northwest corner of Minnesota along the Canadian border and learned what “middle of nowhere” really means.


#17

Are you near Boundary Waters? I would tell you a funny story about portaging a canoe.
Being from the mountains, the flat land covered with trees was very disorienting, to say the least.


#18

The gold pass isn’t the most expensive Florida resident annual pass.


#19

Your other west. Along the Red River. We moved back to LA (Lower Alabama, for our overseas friends) a few years ago. But while I was up there I worked an area from just west of Roseau, MN to just east of Portal, ND. I met people up there who only spoke the language of the old country. Of course that might have been just because they didn’t want to talk to me, but I’m pretty sure some were legit.


#20

Ok. I understand now. I was aware that FL residents could purchase the platinum passes, but my intent was to incorporate the discounted resident only passes in my example. I’ll admit I’m not well versed in the perks for FL residents. I live one mile from the FL state line, but it might as well be a million as far as Disney is concerned.