Predicted Flight of Passage wait times seem too good to be true for Dec?

Looking at visiting AK 12/15/17 with a park crowd level of 4. The predicted wait times for FoP seem crazy low (10am - 33min, 1pm - 54 min, 4pm - 53 min, 7pm - 43 min), as I’ve been watching them over the summer go well into the 100-200 minute range. Even today (8/29), on a predicted AK crowd level of 5, the current wait at 4:30 is 90 min. Should we really expect lower wait times by December?? thanks!!

Those wait times cannot be trusted. There are multiple reports that the line has been 90 minutes by opening.

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Isn’t this going to completely throw off my TP? Especially if I can’t get us FPs?

I put a “break” after the FOP step and added a wait time (based on Liner comments). Then I used Evaluate instead of Optimize. It’s not perfect, but I’m hoping that I overestimated the wait time vs. the other way around.

Hi all,

I’m new to Touring Plans and was very excited with the tool and information sharing on the website until I saw this discussion. Can’t we trust the predicted wait times?? I’ve started to create some personalized plans for early December assuming the wait times showed and used for the optimizations and evaluations were quite robust… (the informed wait time on my plan for FOP on Dec 7th at 9:10AM is 82min, which I thought it kind of made sense…).

So, I guess my main question is: how precise are the wait times used on the plans really? What is the actual average error for those? What are your personal experience with it?

Is the optimization done based on the information showed here: https://touringplans.com/animal-kingdom/attractions/avatar-flight-of-passage/wait-times/date/2018-12-07? I understand this prediction graph is continuously updated, but how big are the changes expected?

Also, please help me better understand one point: how come the wait time is so big just 10 min after the park opens? I know it is related to the fact that A LOT of people may rush to the area, but is it really that bad (82 min for a Crowd level 2 day)?

Thank you all in advance!

Cheers,

Daniel

For FoP, ever since Pandora opened, CMs start leading those waiting to the entrance to Pandora from around half an hour before park opening.

Therefore, the line is already growing rapidly by park opening. And there’s early nothing you can add to a plan to indicate whether you will be at the front of that line (by arriving say 45-60 minutes before park opening) or near the back.

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