Predicted crowd levels changed and now I have no dining reservations


#1

I'm feeling completely overwhelmed and defeated. We are going to WDW in 34 days. Logged in to figure out my FP+ and discovered that the predicted crowd levels have changed dramatically from when I booked my dining reservations. All the getting up at 3am to make them, and I would be stupid to use them at this point. sob sob sob


#2

It will be ok. You still have to eat! It's amazing what ADRs come open in the last few weeks before a trip. Hang in there. You'll have a great trip even though it might be different than you expected.


#3

The crowd levels are not that important as long as you have a touring plan. Keep the ADRs for the meals you want to experience, get to the park at rope drop and stick to your TP - and you will have a wonderful time! :grinning:


#4

Why do you think you would be stupid to use them? Like Sally says, you still need to eat.

Tell us what you have planned, we'll help you figure it out. It will be ok! You'll still be at WDW!


#5

Remember- a prediction is just that! My crowd level in AK went from (I think?) a 3 to a 9 for this past Sunday. I did not arrive to AK until 3:00 and it was busy, but not crazy. Then it started to rain. I went on a crazy safari ride where the vehicle bounced like crazy. The driver explained since there were only 4 of us on it there was no weight. I could have rode EE dozens of times- but my son started feeling sick after 4x. We stood and watched the tree of life awakening with the approximately 75 people. I would be shocked if there were more than a couple of hundred people in the park. You can just never tell- weather happens. Keep your plans!


#6

I don't understand. What does CL have to do with ADRs? Are you afraid that they will "take too much time"? For me a dining experience can be just as (or more) enjoyable than an extra ride. And if you only have an entrée, and ask for your check up front, you can be in and out of most TSs in an hour or less (CMs are a different story, but they ARE a special event). On a very busy day, during "regular" meal hours, you could be waiting 30 min in a QS line; by the time you finish eating, it might be almost as long as a TS - and at least in a TS you're doing your waiting sitting in an air conditioned restaurant and not in an outdoor line...

I agree that it pretty much sucks to plan a trip with one set of CLs and then find out that they have jumped (although personally I would have been very suspicious of anything lower than an 8 or 9 on Columbus Day weekend), but I certainly would not drop any of my ADRs because of it.


#7

To clarify, five months ago we planned on being at MK on Monday (for example), Epcot Tuesday, etc. and planned our dining around that. But now, MK seems to be crazy crowded on Monday so it would make more since to do Epcot Monday and MK Tuesday.

We will probably shift days for 5 of our 6 days. Fortunately, MK still looks good the day we are having lunch with the Princesses :slight_smile:


#8

Personally I wouldn't even think about changing days. Just do personalised touring plans - I'd be surprised if you couldn't see almost everything you have planned. A good touring plan trumps picking the "right" day every time.


#9

I agree with @missoverexcited, don't worry about changing days. A good plan is way more important than crowd levels. For example, a few years ago we were going to be at AK on a 3 day. Well it rained heavily the day before, so it appears many waited to go that next day when the weather was beautiful. Our 3 day became a 10, but I would never have known it as our personalized plans worked exactly as predicted. Sure those who showed up without a plan were not happy, but it honestly didn't matter one bit for us with our very detailed plan. Hit headliners at rope drop, get out of the parks during the middle of the day, use your 3 planned FPP and then continue to get more as the day goes on.....you will be fine! Keep those great ADRs you worked hard for and have a great time.


#10

I'm presuming October 10th is the Monday referenced based on the 34 days in your first message. Right now the Crowd Calendar is showing an 8 Monday vs. a 6 Tuesday at MK while Epcot is a 7 Monday and a 5 Tuesday. So even flopping those dates what you gain on MK, you lose the same on Epcot. And frankly a CC change of 2 isn't worth changing plans over.

You can reference the predicted waits for all the rides at MK on 10/10 here:
https://touringplans.com/magic-kingdom/wait-times/date/2016-10-10

You can then click to see the 11th (link at the top to the next/previous day) and compare. Looking at the 10AM time slot the waits are an extra 4 to 8 minutes on the 10th vs. the 11th. Presuming you have some ADRs reserved you were looking forward to, and you must or wouldn't have started this thread, I wouldn't sweat that wait difference. If you were dropping from an 8 to a 3 or under at MK, I might tell you different, but as is you're likely within the margin for error of the crowd calendar...

Don't panic - trust the touring plans and have fun...


#11

I would stay the course too. Have a rock solid touring plan, and remember you can't do everything, and have a great trip!!


#12

You could also copy all your TPs and just change the dates. You'll find the movement is minimal. I usually found no more than 20 minutes of change by changing up my days based on a CL difference.


#13

This happened to me in August! Everything changed - MK went to 8am opening on the day I had an 8am ADR for BOG that I had felt so proud about so we could get in the park early. It's so easy to get all stressed out over planning! Stick to what you've got and work with it! Make a good touring plan but be prepared to be flexible. It's so much easier once you are there than it feels before you get there.


#14

I think that's just what I needed to hear this morning! Thanks!


#15

Don't chase CLs. These are just educated guesses in the first place, and the difference of 1 or 2 levels really isn't much (the difference between a 1 and a 10, however, is considerable). It's been my experience that as often as not when they post the "actual" CLs after the fact, they are frequently a level or two off.


#16

I'm curious what you did, and how it turned out. I have a trip coming this April and an updated CL came out today. It now looks like I should switch my MK an EPCOT days as EP had moved to a 9. But I'm wondering if I should stick with my touring plan and FP+ Reservations that I have already booked! I'd hate to lose them!


#17

Last year was our first trip to WDW. I planned everything around the best CL days for each park. After we came back, and when the actual CLs were posted and compared to the predicted ones, they were almost all higher. If I hadn't have known that, I would not have known the difference. We got everything done and all was well. I would stick with your plans and not change a thing. Planning is wonderful, but sometimes we can overthink it.