Soooo… I’m reevaluating my situation. Some forecasters are suggesting that this could cross east-to-west across the southern part of Florida and then loop back up, intensifying in the Gulf, to possibly Cat 5 second Florida landfall in the Panhandle. This would also put some strong unpleasant weather toward Orlando for days.
It’s all very tentative, etc., but I am increasingly reluctant to voluntarily put myself in Florida during this if this track holds up. At a minimum, I imagine it would be a total washout for several days.
I’ve seen three different tracks to day. The National Hurricane Center has it going right through Orlando. The U.S. and European models have it going either down on the Southern tip of Florida or swinging North through the Atlantic and hitting up around Virginia.
It was pretty much the same thing when we rode out Ivan in Pensacola (and Ivan was huge). It came in overnight (possibly the most frightening experience of my life), but by the time I got up around 9:00 (having been up most of the night) it was actually sunny with just a slight breeze.
Looking at the forecast two days ago I would have said to ride it out. But today, the track is going right through Orlando after making landfall as a Category 3. Everything in that sentence will probably end up being wrong, but the risk is high enough and we’re close enough to the storm that I would probably stay away.
Anyone who chooses to go to WDW this weekend will be fine. Anyone at the resort will be well taken care of (other than perhaps getting cabin fever if stuck in a value/moderate hotel room, and anyone who doesn’t like boxed sandwiches). But for the sake of emergency response and the other service providers trying to operate under a strained system, the fewer visitors in Florida during the storm, the better.
If anyone has a health issue (storm related or not) someone will have to risk getting on the road to provide care. If someone’s flight gets cancelled, that’s one more passenger that will have to be accommodated on a different flight (and all the calls to operators and agents to arrange it). And all the thousands of people living in and visiting Orlando will need food and other services, which will force residents to go into work on potentially dangerous roads.
Any steps that can be taken today to prevent hassle for Floridian service providers this weekend and into next week, the better.
What happens at BLT when things are shut down due to a hurricane? Is there any ability to get to the Contemporary for the restaurants/arcade? … I assume not because the 5th floor bridge is open on the sides.
Does anyone have a guess how long things would be closed up? If the current forecast is right it will hit Monday afternoon sometime at a 2 but it’ll be off shore Sunday. Will they close Sunday through Tuesday? I know it’s all speculation but just curious how it works.
The worst case scenario is probably a repeat of Hurricane Irma in 2017, which resulted in two full days of closure. However, that was a Category 5 storm that lingered over Florida and impacted virtually the entire state.
It appears that Dorian has a much smaller footprint, is not forecast to strengthen beyond 3 (that could change), and is relatively fast moving so should come and go relatively quickly compared to Irma. They may not close the parks at all depending on the track, or if it maintains its current track, I would expect they will close Monday and reopen Tuesday.
Here is an article with all of the times WDW has closed for a full day (only 7 days in park history).
Heading down tomorrow morning - well actually in about 6 hours - from the UK and reading through all the forums about this has me really stressed. I just don’t know what to expect. Luckily we are there for two weeks so will probably lose only a max of two days out of our trip so it’s definitely not worth it to cancel now. I’ve moved our ADRs on Sunday and Monday and we are packing extra books and games for if we are stuck in our room. We will just have to enjoy our first few days and hope for the best I guess. We were planning on doing Blizzard Beach on Sunday so not sure how that one’s going to pan out…
Don’t stress - you will be just fine! (My post above has someone who can easily change their plans in mind.) With two weeks you will have plenty of time to make up for any days the parks are closed. And you will be completely safe as long as you follow any instructions from Disney. During Irma, my brother left West Palm Beach and stayed at AKL because it’s a great place to be during a hurricane. Crossing my fingers on your behalf that the storm dissipates or changes to a more favorable track.
So we had decided to move our trip to a Wednesday 9/4 arrival, and now Southwest has included it in the dates that might have flights cancelled or delayed. My dh wants to fly in on Thursday now, but that’s our MK day with HEA dessert party. I’m already losing 4 days of FPP, and this would make it 5 days. Not to mention all of the dining reservations, including Storybook Dining, BOG, Ohana, etc. I’m beyond stressed about this! Any thoughts on the likelihood of us not being able to fly into Tampa on Wednesday?
If Southwest has Tampa as an airport that might be affected Wednesday, I would not reschedule to that day. If you are already missing 4 days of your plans, I would try to reschedule your trip to another time more than 60 days out so you can at least salvage the FPP (and have time for the reservation finder to find you some good ADRs). At that point you are missing so much! I am so sorry your carefully made plan is being disrupted.
Me too.
While losing a vacation is nothing compared to losing life, or home, it still represents a lot of planning, hoping, and - for me - it is often the carrot-on-the-stick that gets me through the crazy patches. It’s absolutely something to grieve at least a little! Praying you can all find a satisfactory plan B.
Thank you both so much! You have me in tears. It really is so much planning and so much more than that. Both of my parents were diagnosed with cancer in the past year, and my mom has stage 4 and it doesn’t look good. Planning this trip hasn’t given me hope and a distraction. We needed this vacation so badly and this is so upsetting.
everything disrupted here. My wife should be out of ER/hospital tomorrow after surgery. Dorian will be here though. Funny, when I did the tracker, it showed over orlando area at 1pm on monday. my chef mickey is at 1220. oh my.
Then I zoomed in. Uh…It almost crosses the Celebration hospital where my wife is at currently.
I’m in this same boat too. We were supposed to fly in tomorrow night but we’re only staying until Monday afternoon.
My Monday afternoon flight will probably be a problem, right?
We only have park tickets for Saturday and Sunday. It is mostly likely going to rain both days? I have been to Disney during very rainy tropical storms but this time I am going with my least flexible kid who cannot handle rain and we only have two days!
MVT agent says she will make sure to get all my $$ back. Should I cancel? Help! DH isn’t giving me a definite answer.
We’re tentatively flying in Tuesday morning into MCO. Looking to possibly change flight to Tuesday pm or Wed am. If I do Wed Am i’m going to have to cancel my SW:GE day. I know in the grand scheme of things, one day is better than a whole trip. This is our honeymoon and I’m trying to make the best decision possible.
I’m also torn. I am supposed to arrive around 1 on Saturday and leave Tuesday around 4. That only leaves me with two full park days, which look like potentially the worst weather-wise. What do you think the odds are that the parks will close either Sun or Mon? I know its probably too soon to tell…
and we only have two days!