Potential Hurricane - How to Decide?

Gabrielle started in the same area but the path was never that exaggerated and they never really had it going west. They didn’t really decide it was going to move North until Tuesday. Maybe it will follow Gabriel but they seem to be more sure that this will move West.

Disturbances: ALL [1] [2]

hmmmmm

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Reports I read this morning are still saying this one has a minimal chance of developing, at least until it hits shallow waters closer to Florida. Hopefully, it’s hard west direction will take it past Florida. We will be there 9/14-9/21 as well, so I am following closely right along with you!

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Yeah, the one further out is now down to 30% chance (It was 60% the first time I was looking). I’m there 9/27-10/1 so watching things as well.

Yeah Conner, I think it will be okay. It may effect our Saturday travel day but we’ll see.

Keeping fingers crossed!

I’m hoping this things gets on into the Gulf by Saturday morning.

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:angry:

Ugh, this thing is picking up steam.

I’m starting to see some data that is suggesting that this storm will follow the path of Dorian. Specifically the European model which from what I’ve always seen, the most accurate group.

We’re supposed to fly down Sunday morning. Anyone know the likelihood of flight to MCO being delayed/cancelled because of tropical but not hurricane force winds?

Right now the sustained winds are forecast to be between 35 - 50 mph in Orlando at the height of the storm (which isn’t that high all things considered), and the storm will have passed Florida by Saturday night. Based on that I think the chances of any full closure are low, and the chance that your flight Sunday morning will be effected are even lower, unless you will be flying from or through an area that could be affected.

I could see them temporarily halting takeoffs and landings if winds are especially high sometime Saturday.

ETA: Keep an eye on your notifications from your airline, however.

Thanks @Jeff_AZ. That was sort of my thought but in my final countdown stress was looking for reassurance. Appreciate it

If this thing follows the European model, Orlando will barely see any effects of it at all. It’s looking more and more like this thing is going to stay off coast and keep following the path of Dorian. As of this morning most of the NHC’s focus has shifted from “across Florida” and is now solely focused on the “East Coast of Florida.” I think most people arriving this weekend should be in the clear.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

The local news stations are saying the same thing too. The weather advisories are for the beaches. Unless this storm takes a drastic shift to the West, inland areas like Orlando will just are some breezy weather and occasional showers. Rain chances are down to 60% for Saturday and Sunday and :sunny: the rest of the week.

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Woo-hoo! My fingers are getting really cramped, better keep them crossed until Sunday morning.

The NHC shifted its predictions further east this morning, and now they’re predicting only moderate (20-30mph) winds for inland Central FL, and that it will pass by the central coast between 8am and 8pm Saturdayhttp://www.brevardtimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/025944_earliest_reasonable_toa_34-1.png

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Good news for Florida - so glad everyone’s flights should be ok!

I feel bad for Grand Bahama, where it is expected to dump rain and bring brisk winds to areas that were devastated a couple of weeks ago by Dorian. Also, it’s looking like it will strengthen to a Cat 1 hurricane and it has Bermuda in its sights …

The 2:00 EST update moved this thing even farther off coast. It should be a non-issue by this point. Travel safe everyone.

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Looks good for Central Florida but it amazes me that yesterday there were three systems but this morning there are five.

:grimacing: Yea I read even though statistical peak was 9/11 that next few weeks will be quite active - boo hiss

Back to 3 as of my last check just a moment ago.