We have pre reserved a 1 bed villa at OKW for next July. I know they wont confirm until 330 days before. What is likely of this room not being confirmed. ( this is standard disney booking through an agent, not points etc)
Barring any construction or other event that drastically reduces the number of rooms I'd say you'll get confirmed. OKW tends to be the most readily available, just because it's HUGE and they have a lot of each type of room. As of 2:42pm (Disney time) on 7/11 I can still book a 1BR at OKW for a week with a 7/13 arrival.
One thing that MAY cause an issue is if you're staying the week of the 4th... I still don't think it will be a problem, though. 4 years ago (when attendance wasn't as down as it is now) I booked a last minute trip for that week, and at 9 days out I still had TONS of options.
We did exactly the same 18months ago booked OKW for this August and 26 days off we go it will all be fine, lady told me over the phone that if they take the booking it is very unlikely they would let you down