I am planning our November 2022 trip and MK has a crowd prediction of 9 on that day when all the other crowds have low crowd predictions. Is there a special event happening that day?
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Ignore those predictions that are very far away. It’s much better to be looking at the actual CL’s for November 2021 and forecast yourself for your comparable dates.
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Be aware that these CLs are not definite until about 60 - 45 days out. (Really until about 45 - 30 days) Right now they are just using historical data for 2018 / 2019 / 2020.
Basically, start making your plans and seeing what TP suggests is the best plan. However, know that you’ll “real” plan won’t be ready until about 30 days in advance.
I love TP but any CL # that is more than 45 - 30 days out I no longer trust. Wait and see… it’ll fluctuate. TP only updates about 45 - 30 days in advance and copies & pastes the previous year’s historical info into the farther away future dates.
FYI – A common misconception about Touring Plans Crowd Levels is that they are an indicator of the number of people in each park. However, they are an indicator of average queue waits at the rides in that park during 11am – 5pm - the peak ride times.
A CL 1 can feel like a CL 4 in terms of park capacity, but the queues may be moving quickly. Conversely, you can be in a CL 9 park that feels like a CL 5 because the streets aren’t packed. However, all the queues are super long.
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It could also be the first day of the 2022 Christmas party?