We have a 3 day park hopper pass for Dec 19-21, and I’m in the beginning stages of freaking out! I’m seeing stories coming out this week about what a nightmare the crowds, Genie+, LL, ILL, lines, etc are. People are saying that they’re only able to get maybe 3 LL’s in a day and the ILL are selling out in minutes. The thought that we are spending over $2k just on park tickets, and we might not even get to ride half the rides we want to is giving me a stomachache. Yes, I know we can stand in the standby lines, but those are reportedly 2-3 hrs long. I’m not sure what’s worse…standing in a 3 hr line or not riding at all. I don’t really know if I even have the option to cancel this trip. I’m so bummed. I’ve always wanted to see WDW at Christmas with my kids, but I’ve seen so many more negative comments about going at Christmas than positive. 
Have not seen reports of this, aside from - perhaps at times - the superheadliners.
Edited to add: I’ve just looked at current wait times. At 11am on Thanksgiving Day, one of the very busiest days of all days at WDW. Most things are ranging in POSTED wait time between 20 and 60 minutes; Peter Pan, Jungle Cruise and 7D are between 85-120 mins. We know that standby wait times are inflated to some degree. So these being your MK standby times at peak hours on one of the busiest days, the reports you’ve seen of most things having wait times 2-3 hours is just way over exaggerated.
But to answer your question - yes, they are non-refundable. But, if they have not been used at all you can use the value of them toward the purchase of tickets at a future date, paying the difference between what you paid now and what you’d pay then.
WDW at Christmas is a special kind of crazy but it can be enjoyable provided you have realistic expectations. It’s going to be the Most Crowdedful Time Of the Year, without question. You’ll be slightly ahead of the very worst of it as you arrive, and you’ll see that really ramping up for sure during your time there. Set some priorities and don’t expect to do it all. Enjoy the atmosphere and holiday spirit. You can have a nice time!
^^This.
I’ve gone at Christmas twice in the before times. I’m planning another one for next year. It is a lovely time with all the decorations and special foods. It’s also quite crowded. If you are going for rides only, it’s going to be disappointing, I think, especially with all the changes. However, it’s such a magical time to visit in other ways.
Maybe I should read IG comments with a grain of salt. This morning I saw a recent post on the “WDWNT” Instagram page about LLs selling out quickly, and I started reading the comments. Someone said that the standby line for Runaway Railroad was more than twice as long as the wait time posted, because they continue to let LL through while standby is at a standstill. And Rise of Resistance was sold out by 7:01 with 3 hr waits in standby. Which raised my next question…I didn’t think we could book ILL until the park opened, unless you were staying at a certain Disney resort. So does that mean the resort guests are getting ALL the ILL? I thought getting rid of virtual queues would actually increase our chances of riding RoR. 
I knew it was be super crowded. I guess I just wasn’t expecting this. We’ll probably end up keeping our park reservations, because we live in Dallas and it’s not easy to just hop over to Orlando. We’ll just have to go into knowing that we might not ride the Star Wars stuff (which is what my 12 and 14 yo boys are pumped about). I have about 25 days to become a Genie+ wizard.
ILL sells out fast and those lines - the superheadliners - will at times grow to 2-3 hrs waits. But that is not most standby lines by a long shot.
I also personally read everything by WDWNT with a grain of salt.
I wouldn’t say we are going for the rides only, but with 12 and 14 yo boys, the rides/experiences are definitely important to them. Specifically the Star Wars ones. However…we will just have to go into it knowing that this trip is more about the Christmas magic and less about attractions.
Going in with managed expectations can really help the mindset. That way, when they do get to ride a very popular attraction, it’s an awesome surprise. My DD was able to ride everything she wanted the last time we went at Christmas, although that was also because I had everything planned out with FP+. No telling what it will be like this year.
From what I’ve heard from people there, they are not letting LL through while standby is a standstill. They seem to be drawing pretty evenly from both, with the exception of when they are making up from a ride breakdown.
For the most part, that has been the case with Rise of the Resistance.
Supposedly, they have a tiered breakdown of the ratios of guests from each lane to follow (it’s a written card the CMs at the merge point have). I believe the ratio skews toward LL if that ends up backed up too far but in general it’s 50/50 or 25/75. Explains why the standby on top tiers can balloon so quickly since it becomes a quickly compounding problem if something breaks or there is a huge influx of LL suddenly arriving.
It’s the very same one they used for determining ratio for FPP
Did you listen to the Disney Dish too? 