I am trying to decide between two days for an attempt at early morning at MK (I have PH so evening plans are decoupled from morning plans), both have predicted CL 2. One is Tues Aug 29, where there is a MNSSHP in the evening, so opening hours are 8 am - 6 pm, with 7:30 am early entry. The other is Wed Aug 30, no party that night, opening hours are 9 am - 10 pm with 8:30 am early entry. I would like to try to get an early Tron BG using BG1, and my gut feeling is that with teenagers, we would be so much more likely to be able to make it for an early BG on the Wednesday when the park opens an hour later. But then I know that “crowds are lighter on party days”, so I’m second guessing myself and thinking I should try to go on Tuesday. But we will be miserable getting up that hour earlier. Would you think there’s going to be much actual difference in how crowded we will find MK on a party day vs non-party day when both are predicted to be low crowds anyways?
If they are both a 2, you’re not going to have a problem either way. I’m normally picking between a 7 and an 8! If you want the extra sleep, do that.
It will very likely be less crowded on a party day, but the Wednesday morning should be good enough. I would be careful with Wednesday night though because it’s EEH and the could be crowded given the limited number of nights of HEA
If you read Becky’s Data Dumps on the TP Blog (which I did religiously before our visit last year), I think that on the whole there was a significant difference between party and non-party days at MK (and not always in line with CL predictions). She only started doing these in September 2022, so you cannot look up the same week for last August, but I think this one is the earliest from September 2022: https://touringplans.com/blog/disney-data-dump-september-21st-2022/ Maybe have a look at a few of those early weeks?
Between the TP data and Tom Bricker’s blog posts on the same subject, I ended up convinced that we had to go on a party day when we visited in December, and I did not regret it - MK was blissfully uncrowded especially for the first 2-3 hrs. The 7.30 EE time is part of the reason for that: fewer people are willing to get up that early, and for us it was no problem (we have young kids who are up early anyways).
But I also get that this is not for everyone and if it’s a quiet week at MK anyway, then perhaps the CL difference is not so noticeable? Have fun and let us know how it goes!
Yeah, and it was also mentioned on the Touring Plans Instagram story today - last week they saw a CL1 on one of the party days?
I remember the days when my kids were relentlessly wide awake at 6 am. Those days are gone 
Although DS17 has been stellar at getting up every weekday at 6:30 am this summer for his job, so I know he could do an early morning if needed - he just won’t be happy about it! DD17 was also up at 7 am for 4 weeks of summer school, but she is definitely not a morning person. However, she also doesn’t like the heat, so she may be convinced of the usefulness of early starts once she’s had a couple of days of the Florida heat!
I am leaning towards trying to go to MK on the Tuesday (party day) morning. We are also planning to attend the Extended Evening Hours and watch HEA on the Wednesday evening (we have a dessert party booked). But we’d do AK on Wednesday morning.