I’d anticipate there’s more than enough mild SW fans to leave your Galaxy’s Edge overflowing.
As for crowds there on May 25… sure. That could happen too.
Yeah my UOR dates are now rockin’ solid 7s across the board.
Unleash the dementors!
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That’s an interesting take, and I see what you mean. However, I would expect the crowds to be driven more by Disney’s marketing / special events / commercial efforts than anything. I would expect them to use any excuse (like May 4) to get some extra excitement (and cash) from the mild SW fans. But I would hope that you’re right, as that would make HS a better option for that day. I’ll keep an eye on special events and see if there’s much buzz.
I’m pretty sure that last year there was some guest-generated buzz around being there for May 4 but nothing official or events done by Disney.
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Alright, good to know! Thanks!
Mind you last year was last year. My notes say that all parks were CL 2 except EPCOT was 4.
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MK on May 4 2022 – on the Crowd Calendar it has been changed from a crowd level of 5 to a crowd level of 10!! As this is the ONLY change on the Crowd Calendar for my trip since I last checked, this is very dubious. It would only make sense if the entire state of Rhode Island is spending the day there or something similar.
Someone suggested that this is because MK is closing early on May 3 for a CM event.
@GreyingMouser is exactly right. MK closes early (4:30pm) on May 3. This has had a drastic effect on the MK Crowd Calendar for that week:
MK Monday May 2: 10
MK Monday May 3: 2 (Closing Early)
MK Monday May 4: 10
Thanks for responses! Will likely change to another park.
I should change it… but I’m hoping that when we get there around 7:30 PM that the crowds will have dissipated…
Thanks for the information! Do you believe this 10 crowd level is accurate? This is totally ruining my plans 
It has definitely thrown a wrench into my plans as well. 
It’s hard to say how accurate this particular Crowd Level 10 will be.
There is definitely a certain margin for error in Crowd Calendar predictions. This post from a month ago gives an interesting example of how that might look in a given week.
However, there’s no question that early closures at MK cause crowds to gravitate toward the other parks and away from MK on the day of, and also increases MK crowds the day before and after, so I would trust TP to be close.
I was able to find one really comparable example of a past MK early closure when searching the forum, and I used TP Historical Crowd data to take a look.
Notice that MK was the busiest park the day before and after the early closing. The day after this 2018 early closing was an overall 5 at Disney World. This is also the prediction for May 4, 2022. So maybe this gives us reason to expect something like a 7 (like in 2018) rather than a 10 (what is currently predicted). Here’s more data on the day after that early closure. It shows you that TP predicted MK would be a 5 the day after, and it was actually a 7. I’m wondering if they’d rather be wrong the other way this time around. There are a few more factors:
- Will overall crowds continue to increase as post-COVID travel ramps up?
- Will crowds be trying to avoid HS because it’s “May the Fourth,” causing MK crowds to increase further?
However, looking at all of this, my thought is: If the overall crowd level really is a 5, I think I would prepare for MK to be at least an 8 on May 4. But I think I’d be surprised if it was a 10.
UPDATE - Something I hadn’t considered. Something that differentiates upcoming May 4th from my 2018 example is that May 4, 2022 is a day for extended hours in MK for qualifying guests. Factoring that in, I could understand why the crowd could be closer to 10 rather than the 7 or 8.
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So I’m there this whole week. I’ve decided to go to MK on May 3rd then hop some where or do a special dinner. I will do AK on May 4th then hop to HS after hopefully stacking some LL. Hopefully this works in my favor but who knows. 
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Thank you so much for the great data! If it weren’t extended evening hours I wouldn’t even consider doing MK that day. We have a split stay with 3 nights at a deluxe- so that’s the only extended evening we can do.
I got admit it’s beyond me.
On the 3rd people aren’t going to MK because it’s a short day. CL 2
That I get.
So where are they going?
Apparently where they’re going is forward in time to the next day.
Because on the 3rd, when MK is 2, the other parks are… 4s and 5s.
Pretty much like they are on the 4th when MK rockets to 10.
So Great Scott, the only displacement of these guests is temporal.
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What are your thoughts on the wait times forecast per ride for those days? May 3 is predicted to be a 2 and May 4 a 10, but the attraction wait times are nearly identical. This can’t be accurate?
Can you send a link to where you find the “attraction wait times forecast” that you’re referring to?
My guess is that those will be updated but haven’t yet. Because, as far as I understand it, the “Crowd Calendar Level” really is based on overall projected wait times.
Woah… you pointed out something very important. The May 4, 2022 extended evening hours is something that separates this year from the example I gave from 2018. Maybe that would be enough to make May 4th a 10 rather than a 7 or 8 like in 2018.
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Just the past few weeks, the two cast member appreciation events (for 2020 and 2021) were both postponed from their previous dates (Jan 25 and Feb 8) due to bad/cold weather. Those were on Tuesdays. You can see what the MK CL was around those original dates. The MK CL was 10,1,7 for Mon-Tues-Wed in January, and 10,1,10 for Mon-Tues-Wed in February. Even though the CM events were postponed, the park still closed early, and people stayed away - but sure hit it hard on the days before and after. I think the second attempts this spring will have similar results.
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Brilliant! These data points are very helpful. Especially because the day after both of those two MK early closings (Jan 26th and Feb 9th) were also MK Extended hours, so that gives us more of an apples-to-apples comparison for what to expect May 2 - 4.
January 26 was an overall DisneyWorld 6 AND was Extended Evening Hours. Yet MK was only a 7. Not bad. However…
February 9 was an overall DisneyWorld 7, and Extended Hours, which made MK a 10.
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