I emailed this question in but never heard back, so I thought I’d try posting here in case anyone had any ideas for me.
I’m planning a trip March 5-11, 2017. I was surprised to see that the crowd calendar has crowds at 7 out of 10 on those days, and I’m curious why.
Our last trip was in early March 2014, when Easter was later in April like it is next year. We had low crowds and I expected to see the same for next year with Easter falling late again, and Spring Breaks also falling later.
Easter was early this year (2016) and I know WDW was very crowded in March with the earlier holiday & Spring Breaks. But I’m wondering about expectation for next year, since Easter and Spring Break are later, and the only events I could find during March 5-11 is the Flower & Garden Festival.
So I’m curious to know where that 7 out of 10 expectation comes from. Any ideas?
I can’t answer your question for you, but our spring break falls March 13-17. I guess it’s possible some other state has one the week earlier. But usually the first week in March (your week) is much better, so I see where you’re coming from.
Not every place has their spring breaks in April or related to Easter. Here in Iowa, the three state universities have them the week of March 12-18 next year, and most of the school districts that have spring breaks follow that same schedule. It’s in the middle of the college semester, independent of when Easter happens.
Definitely Spring Break Season - here’s the blog post from this year’s March 6-12, 2016:
Thanks all for your replies. I did see the Spring Break post from this year, and also compared it to Spring Break for 2014 (because that’s when we went last time to WDW) http://blog.touringplans.com/2014/03/16/walt-disney-world-crowd-report-march-9-15-2014/ when the crowds were more like 5s.
So I guess that’s the background of my question as to where the 7s/8s come from for that first week of March. Does the crowd prediction rely only on averaging out past crowds for each date? Or does it take into account the specific holiday/Spring Break dates for that particular year? (I know some schools don’t take Easter into account for their schedules, but many others do).
I also compared to the crowd calendar on WDW Prep School, where March 5-10 are low crowds, with the moderate crowds starting March 11.
It’s so hard to know, but I guess going early in March is going better than later, looking at it overall.
Don’t forget those numbers can change as you get closer to the dates. The resorts haven’t even released their hotel pricing for that time period. Also, park times may change and a number of new things starting this year (Frozen in Norway, Soarin’, AK evenings and any HS announcements) may impact the crowd calendars between now and March.
I thnk you’re making a good decision. As spring break season goes, this should be a good week for you.