Large Crowds on Predicted Slow Days

I’m an annual pass holder and the last four times the actual crowds have been at least two levels above the prediction. For instance, last Friday, November 18th, MK was predicted to be at a 4 and it turned out being a 9!!! On October 13th, Animal Kingdom was predicted to be a 6 and it’s actual was an 8.

It’s a bit frustrating since my DH has only a certain amount of PTOs and we plan our visits so he can go with us on what are predicted to be low crowd days.

Are there any annual pass holders who have noticed this trend, and does anyone have an idea why?

We have used Touring Plans for the last nine years, before we became annual pass holders this year, and it just seems like they aren’t as accurate this year.

Has anyone found any methods of prediction more reliable?

Thank you!

I think I am going to start to assume that there are certain months that the crowds are going to be crazy. October, November and I am afraid maybe December will be on that list. When you add parties and other events (food and wine and special decorations/shows) I think more and more people will plan to be in the world.

I agree with @PrincipalTinker, and would add that it’s possible the crazy, slow summer perhaps caused by tragedies in the news might have resulted in more people visiting this fall. That’s just speculation, of course.

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From what I understand, part of this is caused by the tiered pricing structure that was introduced and this had changed when people go. Part of what is used to predict the crowd levels is the history for that day and from what had been said, this had been different and is changing. On another note concerning this, you picked 2 days, 1 in October and 1 in November but you didn’t mention anything about any other days. Example, Saturday, November 16, here is what was predicted and actual for each park - MK - Predicted 9, Actual 9, Epcot - Predicted 7, Actual 3, HS - Predicted 6, Actual 5 and AK - Predicted 7, Actual 6. Each day, touring plans rates how they did the day before. I’m not an APH but I do use the touring plans and the predictions to help me figure out what parks to go to, however I do also know that they are just that - predictions and not engraved in stone. My touring plan that I will be using for that day seems to matter more then the crowd level, but that is just in MHO.

Rereading your post now that I have been back to the parks a few times, I can appreciate the comment that you made about your daily plan being more important that the predicted crowd level. We have taken our daily plan more seriously and have found we can even enjoy a 10 predicted day if we plan things right.

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