Just how far off were Crowd Predictions for 1/21-30/2022

I think this makes sense. It must grate on profits every time someone comes home from a trip and tells ten friends “man, that was an absolute bleep-show”.

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TWSS :neutral_face::grimacing:

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Perhaps…but ultimately Disney wants two things…to fill rooms (and parks?) to make as much profit as possible, and staff the parks accordingly. Balancing crowds is not really their end goal, in as much as have predictable crowd levels so that can staff just enough. The more dynamic the crowd numbers become, the harder it is for them to do that. And, if Disney had a choice of booking 1000 people in a resort at rack rate due to being so busy, and then 200 people at a discounted rate during a less crowded time, versus booking 600 people at rack rate and 600 people at discounted rate, they would choose the former over the latter because they would make more. Let’s say rack rate is $500, and discounted is 25% less, so $325.

In the first case, that is $565,000. In the second, $495,000. So just balancing crowds for the sake of balancing them is not in Disney’s best interest.

You forgot the option of increasing the discounted rate to the current rack rate - except for Wednesdays which are 30% less because WDW wants to offer its guests savings! - and then charging extra for access to the pool :wink:

Though in all seriousness, that’s a good point about predictability. Though if they thought it would benefit them financially, I think they’d sacrifice predictability. They could always just tell CMs last minute whether they’d be working or not. (Not that I think that’s a good practice. Just that I think they’d do it.)

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Ha! That’s disturbingly so true.

I think this may be called “counter factual thinking”

It reminds me of the study of satisfaction in Olympic medalists that found bronze medalists were happier than silver medalists.

I think the summary is basically silver medalists are mad they didn’t get gold while bronze medalists are just happy they placed.

I wouldn’t be surprised that it’s something similar with crowds you go in expecting a 4 and get a 6 and you feel cheated but if you go in expecting a 9 and get a 7 you feel happy.

Here’s an article about it if you are curious:

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It’s definitely something I have noticed throughout life in other forms as well. Weird examples I strangely remember. The Blair Witch Project was so hyped up that when I went to see it in college, I was extremely disappointed. Sucker Punch movie got such terrible reviews that I was pleasantly surprised it wasn’t as awful as I expected. But that’s not always the case. Sometimes I go expecting something to be good and it is and having tempered expectations and I agree with people something was awful. So, I am not even sure how to really judge this phenomenon and I’m just one person. Cross that with different types of people with different types of personality who want different things out of their vacations and how would one measure this data in relation to crowd levels and a feeling of pleasure/pain associated with their trip. I think it would get really complicated fast.

*Also, thanks for the article post!

I agree I think you could apply this phenomenon to a population but it probably breaks down at the individual level. Like at those Barcelona Olympics there were probably silver medalists who never expected to place at all and were THRILLed with their silver medal.

I think you could ask a very generic question about your thoughts on crowd levels and get a very basic pattern. But then again, my ability to tolerate crowds is also directly proportional to how hot it is. So there it goes getting complicated again!

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This actually made me realize…so, at some amusement parks, they decide to blast rock and roll music at such high volumes in the queue as a form of “entertainment” that it makes it difficult to have any kind of conversation with the people in line with you. I hate that. It is far easier to tolerate a long line when you can talk with your line-mates. But when you feel like you have to shout to be heard, you kind of give up and end up noticing every single minute of the line.

I just wish amusement parks would stop blasting us with loud music in lines!

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What amusement park does that? I don’t recall that being an issue as my recent Six Flags or Cedar Point or Holiday World trips? It’s not an issue for me at Universal or Disney either that I can recall but maybe it just didn’t bother me or I flashpassed/expresspassed/whatever it’s called at that park thru the line too quick to notice.

It is a sometimes issue. They don’t always do it. Cedar Point and King’s Island have in the past. Cedar Point has done a bit better lately (although, they used to be the worst of the bunch), but still does it on SOME rides at times. But when they do, I hate it.

Six Flags I think handles it better because they tended to have TVs in the lines that showed videos and asked trivia questions. They weren’t overly loud, and so served as a distraction if you wanted, but still able to enjoy just talking to others in line.

Yeah, okay. We have a couple of Six Flags near us being one of the actual states with Six Flags so I definitely recall the years of watching Wiley E Coyote and Roadrunner duke it out while in line for Texas Giant. At Cedar Point, I made friends in lines by talking to them so I don’t remember the loud music but we did have whatever their express pass is too…i already can’t remember it’s name. So I wasn’t ever in too many lines except the big roller coaster in the back we did during early entry and therefore, no express and it was the longest line we stood in that day. I’ve never been to King’s Island but DD has since her dad lives in IN. I’ll ask her if she remembers that because he’s not in the buy Express Pass camp like me. We both took her to Cedar Point the same summer separately of course, and I remember her asking me to buy Express Pass because of the long lines she had stood in a couple of weeks before with her dad…I have spoiled the heck out of these children. SMH

Years ago, Cedar Point would actually hire DJs that would try to create a party atmosphere in lines for a few of the big rides, such as Millennium Force. It was part of their “Rockin’ Roller Coast” experience. But, wow, did I hate it. I’m sure there were plenty of people who didn’t mind…but there were those, such as myself, who just despise that experience…especially considering the lines were upwards of 2 hours at times.

Eventually, I saw DJs only rarely, and more recently, not at all…but they would still blast music from time to time. In the last few years, the volume has been turned down some, so I can only guess enough people complained.

(And, not that it matters, but Cedar Fair parks call their line-skipping pass “Fast Lane”. But I’ve never paid for it, nor would I ever.)

I really love ambient music and I love some loud rock and roll but usually I prefer that when I’m cleaning the house and definitely not when visiting with people…but this does go to the different folks different strokes which is why I was curious which parks because if they were blasting music when I was there I didn’t notice and it didn’t bother me enough to leave an impression but for you it made the experience worse.