Exactly the same here. Going Nov. 3-10. Been asking the same questions a few weeks ago and even sent an email to Touring Plans and a staff member actually answered. He said they are confident in their predictions and think a lot of people are postponing trips, waiting for star wars land to open…Keeping my fingers crossed…
The crowd calendar scale has changed over the last few years?
I’ll be there too. I really think people are holding off for Galaxy’s Edge. Remember though, good planning is always key, follow your TP!
I hope the calendar is accurate…we will also be there Nov. 3-9.
I found a blog post regarding some changes to the crowd calendars
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See the above article about the crowd calendar. It explains a lot. The crowd calendars DO change over time. A “3” today is not the same as a “3” from 5 or 10 years ago.
The reason is because WDW crowds continue to grow, but the scale for the crowd calendar still remains 1-10. If the “definition” of a crowd level 3 never changed, then, in times of growing crowds, everything would be a 9 or 10. The crowd calendars are predictions, which most people, I think, use as a planning tool to decide where to go when. So, in that way, crowd calendars are most useful for planning future dates, compared to recent history.
Other crowd calendars (like KtP) use bands of terms (lowest, low, medium, busy, etc.). I would wager that those terms change too over time. What may have passed for “lowest” crowds in 2018 may have been “medium” crowds in 2009.
Also, note, that there is a strong belief that Disney is adjusting their ride capacity in order to save operating costs.
All this means is that the crowd numbers are most useful as a predictor when compared to other dates within the same month, and fairly useful when compared to other dates within the same year. However, trying to figure out how to compare a 2012 number with a 2018 number is tough unless you know the standard that is being measured (again, see the post @PrincipalTinker linked to).
Hopefully this helps? Its tough to predict the future, especially when WDW has so many ways in which it can manipulate wait times REGARDLESS of how many people are in the park each day.
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I see what you’re saying about the need for the scale to change over time. That makes perfect sense. I guess my question, though, was really more about a reversal of a fairly established and fairly recent trend.
In this particular instance, I don’t think this is a case of the scale needing to change or be updated. For the projections to be so dissimilar from the previous two years anticipates a substantial behavioral change, e.g. in 2016 and 2017 the projections were very high and this year, they’re very low.
I’m certainly not complaining. This would be great news for our family if the crowd calendar’s projections were even close to being accurate. We are used to fives, sixes and sevens. I’ll be thrilled if we experience anything close to a two, three or a four.
Another thing, and this is really just personal preference, when I look at the crowd calendar I’m less concerned about the given wait time for any specific ride and I’m more concerned about how many people will physically be in the park. To be honest, I’d rather wait a little extra per ride based on Disney’s manipulations than I would to be surrounded by masses of humanity and somehow save a couple of minutes per ride. I know that may sound stupid since nobody goes to the park to simply walk around, but I find it to be a more enjoyable experience when it feels like you can walk pretty quickly and pretty freely between attractions and that has value to our family irrespective of ride times.
in any case, I really do appreciate everyone’s feedback. I have found this forum board – and really the touring plans website in general – to be incredibly valuable. The dining reservation finder alone has been absolute gold!
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I fully understand what you are saying. I don’t know what would cause great changes compared to last year, except, as that article mentions, TP changed its methodology fairly significantly in early 2018. As for number of people in the park, there is no way for TP to know.
They gather the data for the Calendars by collecting wait times from users in the park, collecting posted wait times from users in the park, collecting wait times from TP staff, and, from time to time, physically counting people exiting given rides to try and determine the capacity at which the ride is being operated.
The wait time at any particular ride is, in reality, just a surrogate for the crowd since what most people want to do is to experience attractions and, therefore, if the wait times at Space Mountain and Splash Mountain are longer, there are likely to be more people in the park than on days when the wait times at those two rides are shorter. So, they use that data to formulate crowd calendars.
There are some events, like Food and Wine at EPCOT, which attract a huge crowd of people to the park who are, for the most part, not experiencing the rides and attractions, but I think that for a majority of days, that is not the case.
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Given the way the Touring Plans crowd level scale works, this numbers dropping for this particular week don’t necessary mean your visit will be any less crowded. It could just mean that other times of year have gotten much more crowded and those dates are being assigned the 8’s, 9’s, and 10’s, reserved for the busiest times of the year.
It’s confusing in a sense, because after years of using Touring Plans you start to get a feel for what a “5” day in the parks is like and then that changes over the years, as parks have gotten busier and an average day today looks a lot different than in would’ve 10 years ago. On the other hand, as a decision making tool, if you’re comparing what time of year to visit the parks, then Touring Plans scale makes sense, since it’s still identifying if one time of year is more or less busy than another. Their system assumes that you are going to visit Disney World and just want to choose what time of year or what specific days within your vacation to go to a specific park. The Touring Plans system doesn’t work if you’re deciding whether you even want to visit Disney World at all, and only wish to do so if wait times are at a particular level you may have seen in the past.
This is all SO true. CLs have always been relative numbers, not absolute numbers; many people have never grasped (or accepted) this.
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So, you’re getting closer and I’m sure you don’t want to worry any more about this topic, but…I predict an uptick in attendees from my part of NJ (way down south, for those keeping track). Seems like the school districts in the county got together and decided to have an in-service day the day before our teacher’s convention that week, effectively giving the students five days off in a row. Besides not having any students left in school for that two day week (as a teacher, at least it will be quiet!), I think it will invite lots of families to take advantage of the time and head out on vacation. I personally know quite a few families going then. Anecdotal evidence though, for sure.
The thing is, I really don’t think it will make a difference if you have a touring plan set up already. I would jump at the chance to go then - our usual visit time is August because it works for our family, but I would LOVE to go when I don’t have to change my outfit 2-3 times a day due to sweat. So go prepared, and don’t expect it to be empty, and you’ll be fine.
And oh my, Mike Trout is from my end of the state and calls it Taylor ham? I am worried…it’s pork roll, for sure.
Rumor on the street is that for next year’s F & W, Disney is setting up a Taste of New Jersey booth. It will be filled with fresh QUALITY Bagels, Tomato Pies, Eggplant Parm, Italian Hoagies, Ripper Hot Dogs, Jager Bombs and Yeungling Beer (yeah I know it’s brewed in PA). All served with a dash of attitude.
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The could have face characters too:
Snookie
Sitch
Jwow
Bruce
Jon Bon Jovi
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I don’t think it sounds stupid at all. I agree with you
This is my first time posting, but I needed to chime in 
We went on “Jersey Week” in 2014 (Nov 2-7), and TP says the crowd levels were 5-6-7 that week. We had a PERFECT time. I used my customized touring plans from this site, and we had almost zero wait for anything (except Space Mountain - it went down, and Pirates of the Caribbean. On Pirates, we only waited 25 min.) It was a great time, weather was perfect, and our touring plan helped guide us immensely!
We hadn’t been before, so I didn’t have anything to compare to, but it was a great week. I planned a lot, with the help of this site, but it wasn’t an issue! If you’re traveling that week, you’ll have a great time! Especially if you’re using the tips you’ve learned here.
We’re headed back the week after Thanksgiving (36 more days!) and we’re very excited!
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Thank you so much for this. I am going Nov. 3-10 and getting very excited / anxious and this made me feel really good. 
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