Is August 14-16 going to be super busy?

School starts in mid august in some areas of the country, but September in others. Do you think August 14th through 16th will still be busy?

I would check the Crowd Calendar to be sure, but I’d expect Mid-August to be less busy. As you note, some will be back in school, but even the September school crowd will be somewhat limited as anyone with older kids doing Fall Sports will have to be in town for practices.

I’m arriving the 15th, the CL starts to drop around the middle of the month.

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I find the crowd calendar here pretty accurate, but Undercover Tourist is another go-to crowd calendar & I have also found Kenny the Pirate to be accurate also.
UT has those days as 6/10. KtP uses just 5 ‘colors’, very low, low, moderate, heavy, insane. He has that week as heavy & it looks like they are 7s here.
So I would say yes it is going to be busy - it is still summer season.

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Our last trip was 5th-19th August, and I didn’t notice any drop off in crowds.

We go every August. It’ll be less busy than the rest of summer because FL schools are back in session but it’ll still be busy. We rope drop, use FPs and relax mid day, then hit the kid rides later in the evening to close and it’s manageable. The August ‘secret’ has gone away the last few years unless you’re talking about the week before Labor Day. There is also a DVC event at Epcot the evening of 8/15 so I’m not sure what that’ll do to crowds on your dates. If you can deal with the heat and make at least a plan outline to follow you’ll be fine. Just don’t expect to walk on whatever you want whenever you want. Not sure if there is any time you can do that anymore…