$18.
I have forgotten what month/time of year you’re going. Suppose there isn’t availability - your whole plan is shot. Do you have a backup?
We have alternative bplans, although we are going during one of the lowest crowd times, so I am hopeful. Plus I have a direct contact for a person to rent from (both BLT and BW they have as home DVCs) if necessary.
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If possible, I would make the arrangements for someone to be booking day of at 11 months . I haven’t looked at BW 2020 points but it can be challenging at times because it takes lower points to book. Also, lower crowd times (is there such a time?) can mean it is harder to get DVC if points go further.
What about the Poly, it’s convenient for both MK & EP. Is MK your favorite park?
DH laughed when I read him this because I do the opposite…I start with Pop and by trip time, I’ve talked myself up to Beach Club or Boardwalk! I told my travel agent I booked Pop for a May trip and she said ‘LOL, because you won’t change it later!’…she knows me so well! 
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Ryan, this is the busiest DVC time. In fact, if this is for the first week in December and you want a studio, I would be surprised if there’s any availability at BWV by now. People will have been booking since Jan 1st, 8am.
Update: there are still garden view studios but they will go fast. You need to make a decision this morning and ask your friend to book ASAP if you want the Boardwalk. There are no studios at all for Bay Lake.
No worries. I have a full year. Looking at December 2020, not 2019! Plus, we want a 1 bedroom, not a studio. Still, I plan to hop on it immediately at the 11 month mark!
Our backup plan, however, is that I will already have reserved something through Disney directly (non DVC) which we will cancel when/if we get the DVC. I will do that at the 499 day mark, whenever the rooms first open up. We still have to decide which place exactly to do that fits our budget. Probably BW Inn or something.
Phew! Somehow missed that it was for 2020.
Okay. New plan. Wife and I had some discussion, and now thinking to drop the split stay, drop BW, and just do 8 nights at BLT…but standard view. Forget theme park view. This makes the price about the same. If we want to see the theme park, we can just go to the observation deck or something!
Tomorrow the plan may be different
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Standard view is the first 5 floors, on both sides. In other words, you could still be able to see the fireworks, just from a lower vantage point.
Last time we had lake view but were on the outside of the “C”, nearest to MK. We had a view of both MK and Bay Lake. But actually I was secretly disappointed, I prefer the inside of the C” where I can see across Bay Lake and see the water pageant every night.
If you really want a view of the fireworks, then ask for the outside of the semi-circle.
FYI, unless you are members you won’t be able to go up to TOTWL. However, you can see them from the windows by both sets of elevators. Alan’s they pipe the music onto the walkway to the Contemporary (on 5th floor of BLT), and you could also walk across and watch from the observation deck on the 4th floor of the Contemporary. Or simply stand outside and look up!
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I would choose the resort I really wanted with a standard view over the $900 cheaper resort if it doesn’t give you the same “feels.”
When we were choosing our hotel for our trip there were several deluxes within $500-$1,000 of the Poly quote and I was waffling on whether I could justify more for the Poly and DH told me to choose the one I wanted. I’m glad I listened to him.
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There are actually a few standard rooms and lake view rooms at BLT where you get a partial theme park view