I am stressing because my resort reservation begins August 8, so my 60-day mark is next Tuesday, June 9. Also, MDE still shows an AP expiration of June 27 (no extended exp date yet) and I don’t think I will be able to reserve either parks or dining (except for DS locations) by next week. Hoping I don’t miss any notifications…
30% of 286k = approx 84k for the parks
So at 4 people per room (I think that’s low, you have a lot of 2&3 bed villas to account for and at least half the studios & 1-beds sleep 5), that’s 21k rooms.
That’s more like 66% occupancy, it seems a big difference even allowing for CSR & Jambo being closed.
But I took 50% of 30k rooms and estimated 60-75k guests at 4-5 people per room.
My concern is that DVC will book up. At the moment people are hanging back if they don’t already have reservations. But as those escorts move to 75%, the figures get tighter.
Hmmm, I don’t know. 
Where is this number from? Disney has not released park capacities that I know of.
ETA with some googling I found a similar unofficial number
That information is classified, and fluxuates with park expansions/construction.
Phase one non entries at Magic Kingdom begin at aproximately 65,000 people, with an estimated capacity of 100,000 guests.
Based on parking and non entry phases, Hollywood Studios has an estimated capacity of 75,000 guests.
EPCOT: aproximately 95,000 guests
& Animal Kingdom aproximately 60,000 guests.
All together 330,000 guests in the theme parks only.
Anyone who has the actual known information regaurding attendance and capacity is under a severe confidentiality contract.
But everyone staying then will be in the same boat.
You won’t have the full 60 day window for park and resort ADRs, although you will be able to book Disney Springs, for length of stay as usual.
But when they do open the park reservations, even if it’s more like 45 days out, you won’t be at a disadvantage.
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I swear I read once that average room occupancy at WDW is 2.3 or 2.5 people per room…trying to find that reference. 4 is way too high.
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Both the 286K number @ryan1 stated and the 330K number you found are in line with what I can derive from the annual attendance figures. If you take the 100K MK capacity as a given, you arrive at an average daily capacity of 57%. Assuming that all of the parks are at the same average daily capacity, you can back in to a total capacity of 280K. However, I would think that MK is usually operating at a higher capacity percentage than the other parks, which would then increase the total park capacity.
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I ended up in the rabbit hole of trying to discover how many tour groups are in WDW in July/August. It is peak tour group season, and that is a slice that will completely disappear. I wonder if it’s even worth it to keep all the All Stars open without these groups. Unfortunately I couldn’t find any numbers.
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I agree - with most rooms having a capacity of 4-5, a lot of rooms will have 2-3 but none will have 6, so the average will be below 4.
Also, not everyone in every room will be at a park every day. Some will to to UOR, others will take a resort day, others are arriving or departing. So you may have only, say, 2/3 days in a given stay being park days. That assumption could drive a HUGE change in the calculation!
Thank you! I have heard on podcasts repeatedly that Disney doesn’t release these numbers.
I still struggle with the max capacity because average attendance is not the maximum capacity. I do follow the assumptions made. But when the parks rarely close due to capacity it falls apart in my reasoning.
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But you are ignoring the DVC units in that count. Many studios sleep 5. 2-beds sleep 8-9, GVs sleep up to 12.
And the regular suites sleep 6.
Now from the TP figures, there are 4149 DVC rooms, which excludes Jambo and includes 150 Riviera rooms which is guesstimate of how many have been declared and therefore belong to DVC not Disney.
So 4K rooms at an average of 5-6 is a significant number.
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I included DVC. But just because rooms can accommodate certain numbers doesn’t mean they are averaging that number of people.
I think 4 people per room on average, across all rooms, is high…but it is what I used for my calculations.
Thanks For your insight
I just figured the suites and DVC villas were a small enough share of rooms, and the occupation rates low enough (ie, 4 people in a 1BR suite) that it wouldn’t impact overall. But I admit it could be material to the calculation as I don’t have the numbers in front of me. Just a hunch. 
Yes. That’s true. But you also have rooms with 1 or 2 guests. So you average 1 room with 6 people and 1 room with 1 person, you get 3.5 people per room.
So, I still believe using 4 people per room is really too high. As I mentioned before, we have 3 rooms, 7 people. That’s 2.3 people per room.
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I spoke to a CM yesterday who said that they were still working on it, and that it would be going out in am email with a link in it. She said that it would be going out for July and August guests first, as they work through it.
We have 9 day tickets booked in December. I don’t want to pay for days that I can’t use, nor do I want to pay for 10 nights to hang around the resort. Not at Disney prices.
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It does say somewhere they will refund any days you cannot get into a park. But I assume that will be the pro-rated day cost of the park tickets.
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…and if you can hotel hop w/o reservations or storm bay isn’t open… what do you do at a WD resort? You could stay off property and go into DS for less $$$
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Thanks. I agree!
Awww, the July and August guests get the privilege of being guinea pigs for a new Disney IT system. So lucky!
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My thoughts exactly.
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