Hurricane Irma


#1

As I'm sure that this will be a topic of discussion over the next week or so, I thought I'd start a thread. As a FL Gulf Coast resident, I track hurricanes pretty closely. Based on the Sat 10:00 PM update, it looks like virtually all of the models show it hooking to the East, missing FL completely (possible land fall somewhere up the Eastern seaboard - or going completely out to sea). The fact that the models have been consistently moving Eastward over the past few days (2 days ago it was a 50/50 shot it was coming into the Gulf), I'm feeling "cautiously relaxed".

But one thing I've learned about hurricanes is that they can change course suddenly (up until about 12 hours before landfall, Katrina was supposed to hit between Mobile and Pensacola; it took a last-minute hook to the West, and we know what it did to NOLA). But as of right now, it doesn't look like Orlando (or any of FL) is in the projected path.


#2

I Pray that you are correct. As an Aussie resident that has no experience of these things and have waited 18 years to get to WDW and not much wiggle room in my itinerary I am happy to admit I am worried. If you look at my Google history you would see Hurricane Irma searched a lot in the last few days. I really hope it stays at sea. After seeing what Harvey has done I wouldn't wish that on anyone else either.


#3

I live in Houston, and we are barely recovering from the damage from Harvey. I am most definitely praying it doesn't enter the gulf, or anywhere with a population for that matter.


#4

any idea of the timeframe it would hit, if it hit land?


#5

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145723.shtml?cone#contents

The official cone doesn't go that far yet, but if it follows the central line of the current cone, and the average of the long range models, I would guesstimate somewhere around NC or VA somewhere around the 12th or 13th. But I'm NOT a meteorologist, and as I said in my initial post, predicting a hurricane's path more than a week out is difficult to do.


#6

Here is a link to the current "Spaghetti Models".

There's an old saying - possibly Chinese - that says "If a man has a clock, he always knows what time it is; if he has two clocks, he is never certain". These models are like having 20 clocks. Two days ago, about a third of the lines had it coming into the Gulf, and the fact that all of the models have shifted markedly to the East is a good sign (at least for FL, AL, MS, LA, and TX).


#7

Thanks, @bswan26


#8

Thanks for watching @bswan26 Coming in two days. Not too many make their way up to 06070 so any updates and info would be great!!


#9

Are you referring to the zip code for Simsbury, CT???


#10

Yes. I think you were in band with my brother Ted C.


#11

I'm supposed to fly to st Pete Friday so I'll be watching closely! Thank you for sharing.


#12

Laurie? or is it Tom?


#13

Laurie :slight_smile: I saw @bswan26 on the app and thought, could it possibly be you .Saw this and figured I'd take a chance, glad I did!


#14

The smallness of the world continues to amaze me. I haven't been back to Simsbury since 1990, but Ted and I are friends on FB. I was really hoping to make it up for my 40th reunion next month, but it doesn't look like it's going to work out. Are you in the "I grew op in Simsbury" FB page?


#15

@bswan how cool is this?


#16

It is such a small world, you have to wonder who else on Lines knows others but doesn't know who they are and that they do. Almost like the 7 degrees of Kevin Bacon. I am on the FB page, mostly a lurker but love to see the historical pictures that people post. I think there was one of you at ground breaking of Hopmeadow?
Check out Ted's FB, a bear broke into his house the other day. Many bear sighting all over the Farmington Valley. Sorry you cant make it up here for the reunion, I'm in Farmington now but mom is still on Firetown Rd. so I go there often. Some changes but not too many. Still a wonderful town!


#17

@bswan26, things are looking more ominous today. What say you?


#18

Sadly, I have to agree. the FL peninsula is looking to be right in the middle of the spread of the long range forecasts, with some still showing a track up the East Coast and some going into the Gulf. The next few days will tell us more. If the track continues to flatten out, it could be a bad time for the Gulf. My "anxiety meter" is starting to climb...


#19

I remember that anxiety meter. Living in Florida for 6 years, I became a devoted follower of the Weather Channel. I will think good thoughts for a northeast track.


#20

My sister has been to WDW twice in September... in 2004 when Hurricane Jeanne went right over Orlando, and then the week before Labor Day last year when Hurricane Hermine made landfall to the northwest.

Guess who will be at WDW with me from 9/10-9/13??? I've made the decision that she is never again allowed to set foot in FL during the month of September.