HS dropped to 2 on an EMH night (5-11-15). I'm confused as to why?


#1

TP recently updated May 2015 and they dropped HS from a 5 to a 2 on an EMH Night (Monday, May 11, 2015)

I understand the whole week has dropped because SWW starts 5-15-15...but, why would the lowest number all week go against conventional thinking??? In all my years of planning, I've never seen an EMH night at HS as the "most recommended park of the day". (I have not seen any other trackers flip on this day for HS)

So, do I trust this TP change or go with my gut? (I really am surprised by this)

Thanks for any feedback! TikiTom


Which day to go to HS
#2

I'd be inclined to go with my gut; TP has had some major misses lately...


#3

Thanks for the feedback. I'll consider it a 'mistake' until I see at least one other confirmation.


#4

Tagging @Lentesta And @daybreaker for confirmation.


#5

May 2014 was pretty slow so I'm not surprised that the estimates went down for 2015. Also, the assumption that Extra Magic Hour Evening affects crowds during the day is not supported by the data that we track. Recall that our crowd levels indicate the wait times between 10am and 5pm. The park may be more or less crowded in the evening (likely more crowded during EMH evening).


#6

@fred I never knew the crowd level was based on times between 10-5. What is the reasoning behind that and have you ever thought of having a second wait time for evenings?


#7

I also don't recall ever hearing that. I'm sure it's somewhere in the fine print of the Unofficial Guide, but I've read the book more closely than most and listen to Len on various podcasts and if that was mentioned, I either missed it or it never stuck in my head.


#8

That is actually quite useful to hear. Perhaps it is time to post a refresher on what the numbers mean. We explained it when we launched and we often refer to it in our blog but for many, it is obviously not common knowledge.

There are several reasons. Firstly, we want the numbers to be directly comparable across parks. To do that we need common hours. Secondly, these are the core hours when most guests visit so the numbers will apply to the majority of users. Thirdly, evening crowds can be significantly different for reasons unrelated to true crowd levels. For example, MK when hosting a party is a true 1, 2 or 3 during the day. If we include the party and call the day a '7', our numbers during the day don't make sense.

Yes, we have considered offering independent indicators of crowd levels in the evening. Still working on it.


#9

I just looked at the numbers for May 3-5 and June 28-July 1st 2014. I was in the world on these dates. It seems as if you have not changed the charts to reflect the actual numbers and therefor projected numbers may be off. For example, May 4th in the MK. Also, you dropped the actual for May 3rd in HS although the wait times for ToT and TSMM were higher than predicted. I will tell you, the June dates had the lowest crowds I experienced and lowest waits over my four trips. I do not depend on crowd predictions to schedule my trips but other do. I believe we should it expect it to always be busy and just enjoy it when it is not ( like my June/July trip) but the numbers do not make sense, and isn't that the beauty of numbers, they should always make sense?


#10

Since I was there last weekend as well, please check MK numbers for Monday December 15th. There are multiple posted actuals of over 60 minutes at JC as well as other attraction. In the park even Small World was post 45 minutes and above. You could not walk through the park. You have actuals also posted at under 30 at the same time. It is throwing the calendar and numbers off.