I’ve read that Hagrids is down during EPA as much as 2 out of 3 days. Since we will be rope dropping IOA only once, the risk is high it will be down.
My question is: how will we know? If we race to ride after being front of the pack, and get in line, presumably near the front, will we be able to pivot and abandon ship when it becomes clear it’s down?
We could ride VC and then enjoy hogs Meade before the rush instead.
Or should we wait?
I wish I had an answer you’re going to like, but all I can offer is the truth…LOL!!
You’ll know when you get all the way up to the queue entrance at RD. That will start closer to The Lost Continent / Hogwarts Express. The TM’s there will either allow you to go to the locker bay or tell you it’s delayed. This is the most common scenario. They don’t often let you in the queue if they already know it’s delayed.
However, if you get into the extended queue, store your bags and then enter the actual show building only to find out that it’s gone down there’s not much you can do. You can either leave and make the long walk back to your locker or “stay & pray.”
IME - If they let you into the queue and then it goes down, you should stay. It means they’ve run some bikes through the their cycles, but there is still something causes an error. Typically, a running a couple more trains and pressing the right buttons will fix it. (an oversimplified explanation from my Ops days!) You might wait 10 minutes, but not much more. I’d only duck out of the show building if it’s already been 15+ minutes and they start making actual “delayed” announcements on the overhead speakers. Then it might be a while. However, the TMs will typically dump the queue if they know it’s going to be an extended delay.
Personally, this is a bit exaggerated. I will say you might get 2 out of 7 days of it delayed. (I’ve had many trips with no issues at EPA… My issues riding have been more often in the mid-late day.) It really depends on the weather and how late it ran the night before. Maintenance does a lot to the ride overnight. If they have a late night closing / private event then that can really mess it up the next day.
I’ve been stuck in the main building queue for over an hour before. We thought the line was moving but it was only because people were bailing! I do find it is down often during EPA but when it’s running it’s a fantastic jump on the day.
My brother and I usually have an agreed upon bail time, like 30mins for example, once you know the ride is delayed
For early admission, do they tend to let folks thru gate right at 8am, then you have to hike to Hagrids (15 minutes) getting in line around 8.25, or is there a different process?
Often you’ll get in the main gate anywhere from 5 - 15 minutes early. Then you do the hike around Seuss Landing, up through Lost Continent to Hagrid’s.
It’s typically a large herd / mass of people all walking & running the same direction… 
A few people will go left to VC right after Lost Continent, 90% of people will continue to Hargrid’s