I’ve read that Hagrids is down during EPA as much as 2 out of 3 days. Since we will be rope dropping IOA only once, the risk is high it will be down.
My question is: how will we know? If we race to ride after being front of the pack, and get in line, presumably near the front, will we be able to pivot and abandon ship when it becomes clear it’s down?
We could ride VC and then enjoy hogs Meade before the rush instead.
Or should we wait?
I wish I had an answer you’re going to like, but all I can offer is the truth…LOL!!
You’ll know when you get all the way up to the queue entrance at RD. That will start closer to The Lost Continent / Hogwarts Express. The TM’s there will either allow you to go to the locker bay or tell you it’s delayed. This is the most common scenario. They don’t often let you in the queue if they already know it’s delayed.
However, if you get into the extended queue, store your bags and then enter the actual show building only to find out that it’s gone down there’s not much you can do. You can either leave and make the long walk back to your locker or “stay & pray.”
IME - If they let you into the queue and then it goes down, you should stay. It means they’ve run some bikes through the their cycles, but there is still something causes an error. Typically, a running a couple more trains and pressing the right buttons will fix it. (an oversimplified explanation from my Ops days!) You might wait 10 minutes, but not much more. I’d only duck out of the show building if it’s already been 15+ minutes and they start making actual “delayed” announcements on the overhead speakers. Then it might be a while. However, the TMs will typically dump the queue if they know it’s going to be an extended delay.
Personally, this is a bit exaggerated. I will say you might get 2 out of 7 days of it delayed. (I’ve had many trips with no issues at EPA… My issues riding have been more often in the mid-late day.) It really depends on the weather and how late it ran the night before. Maintenance does a lot to the ride overnight. If they have a late night closing / private event then that can really mess it up the next day.
I’ve been stuck in the main building queue for over an hour before. We thought the line was moving but it was only because people were bailing! I do find it is down often during EPA but when it’s running it’s a fantastic jump on the day.
My brother and I usually have an agreed upon bail time, like 30mins for example, once you know the ride is delayed
For early admission, do they tend to let folks thru gate right at 8am, then you have to hike to Hagrids (15 minutes) getting in line around 8.25, or is there a different process?
Often you’ll get in the main gate anywhere from 5 - 15 minutes early. Then you do the hike around Seuss Landing, up through Lost Continent to Hagrid’s.
It’s typically a large herd / mass of people all walking & running the same direction… 
A few people will go left to VC right after Lost Continent, 90% of people will continue to Hargrid’s
My suggestion is to have a weather radar app handy on your phone. If you see ANY weather coming towards Orlando, don’t get in line. We were stuck in the cave part for almost two hours b/c of lightning. The lightning has to be miles away before they open the outdoor coasters back up.
Not in my experience. It’s been down 4 out of 4 times, which is really frustrating since that and VC are the only rides I care about.
In my limited experience:
Sometimes they announce it, sometimes they don’t.
My plan for next visits: I will try early entry, but if Hagrids is down, I will go straight to VC and do Hagrids at park close.
I just realized the OP is really old.
I’m so sorry. I’ve been spoiled.
It’s your first mistake 
Makes me not want to go to IoA again, to be honest. Hearing others have had better luck might make me change my mind.
I’ll bet if you visit UOR guest services in person and tell them you’re 0 for 4, they hook you up with Hagrid’s Express Passes.
Whoa, I didn’t know this was possible.
I have never had trouble getting on Hagrid’s, though it has had breakdowns and waits of 45-90 minutes, but I would never wager my early entry for that. I ride Velocicoaster first and then do Hagrid’s either at 11am or after dusk.
Totally! Any time you have an issue with an attraction go to GS and let them know. As a matter of fact there are multiple “hidden” Guest Services locations inside the parks. You don’t have to go all the way back to the front gate. These desk tend to have no wait as few people know they exisit! I just found that out last December!
At USF there’s a GS desk near MIB at the “vacation planning” desk and another at the London HE entry
At IOA the GS desk is at the “vacation planning” desk near The Watering Hole
These, typically, have no queue!! They’ll hand you Express Passes with no issue. On my last trip I had an issue at Kong and at Hagrid’s on different days. I think they gave me 12 - 14 Express Passes. Half were good at Hagrid’s & VC!
Just be nice & explain what is happening. The GS teams get a lot of angry people. So if you are nice and tell them that you’d like an Express Pass they’ll hook you up!
It’s happened on a few of my trips!
BTW - I really do feel bad that you haven’t been on it and I was so casual about how lucky I’ve been when getting to ride!! I hope you get to do it soon! 
I’m always nice
Seriously, thank you. Knowledge is power.
My standard advice is skip Hagrid and do everyting else. Do Hagrid right after an early lunch.