Most people won’t pay extra for FastPasses. A percentage will, but I doubt it will be that high.
People will end up spending more time in line and less time at restaurants and shops, where Disney makes a huge margin.
They will lose all the planning data they get, so they won’t be able to optimize their staffing levels. So they’ll have to overstaff, thus costing them more.
Like I said. They will charge for FP. But it will be to get more FastPasses. Or to get FastPasses to Galaxy’s Edge once the inital FPs run out. They just won’t remove the free FPs.
Whatever percentage of the people willing to pay for it turns out to be, it will be higher than the current level of zero.
1(a). WDW guests continue to throw money at Disney in record amounts despite egregious ticket price increases, quality of service decreases, and the monetizing of everything imaginable. The idea that converting FP+ to a fee based benefit would negatively affect Disney’s bottom line may seem intuitive, but recent history predicts otherwise.
I’m not aware of any hard evidence attributing increased food, beverage, and merchandise sales to time saved with to FP+. They are not even logically related.
The type of planning to which you refer doesn’t depend on FP+ data. At all.
You make a lot of assumptions about what Disney won’t do for a dollar that just aren’t supported by reality. Likewise regarding what guests (generally speaking) are willing to tolerate, or at least endure. I’ll refer you back to 1(a) above. History is not on your side. At this point if WDW implemented body cavity searches and charged a fee for them I wouldn’t automatically assume there would be a guest rebellion. And Disney knows they haven’t found the limits of what guests will tolerate.
#2 and 3 have both been stated by Disney as being benefits of FP in various interviews. As far as #1, why would they remove a guest benefit altogether when they can still provide the free guest benefit and upcharge for extra FastPass privileges?
How does #3 not depend on the FP data? They have hotel data but hotels are always at 90% capacity. FP gives them their best view into off-site guests.
What interviews? When? In what context? For whose benefit? Were they talking about anticipated benefits or observed? (These are rhetorical questions. I don’t want to wade any deeper into the weeds.) Take those interview statements with a grain of salt. Corporations, like governments, lie, mislead, and misdirect for effect. A publicly traded company like Disney does have a few more constraints on when, where, and to what extent it can manipulate the truth, but it’s not entirely prohibited from doing so. I guarantee you it doesn’t release any genuine operational data, strategies, forecasts, etc. that it doesn’t have to.
Why would they remove a resort guest benefit like free self-parking altogether when they can still provide the free benefit and “upcharge” for valet parking? Answer: Because they can.
Because they do it at every other park without it. Because they did it for years at WDW without it. Because they know their business, their seasons, the popularity of their rides and shows. Because they know how many tickets they’ve sold. Just because somebody has a FP doesn’t mean they’re going to show up for the ride. FP+, at best, tells you how many fast passes were issued. It doesn’t tell you anything else about the demand for a particular attraction on a particular day at a particular time. It’s just really not that useful a data element for the management tasks you described, or at least not as critical as you seem to believe.
I have to disagree. We almost never ride anything standby. We use FPP early in the day and then ride with FPP all day long by modifying over and over. No standby for us unless it is at rope drop or late in the evening. So for some, yes they may end up waiting a long time in standby, but there is no reason to if you plan (err…obsess, really). Maybe it’s because we go frequently, and have long trips but we don’t ride standby barely.
But we shouldn’t be punished just because we are in the know. If they got rid of FPP, or fastpass in general, I would spend a whole lot less time at Disney. Universal would get more of my money as their express pass system is superior (to us) anyway. Just look at Fantasyland in Disneyland as an example- no fastpass for any of the rides. So we mostly skip it except early in the morning or late at night. We are not wait in line types I guess, spoiled by the fact that we go multiple times a year probably. Anyway, I sure hope fastpass stays around. There are some interesting rumors that when Star Wars opens at DL in June, the SW rides will be by paid Maxpass only, no option for free fastpass. I will be interested to see what happens there. Disney will be selling a whole lot of Maxpass (now $15 a day per person, up from $10) if that is the case.
Oh I’m not arguing that it should go. I’m agreeing with what @ryan1 said that if you wait less in one line because you’ve got a FP, you’ll wait longer in the standby line for another because you didn’t get a FP. Not super planners like Liners, but that is the average guest experience.
Really? Anyway, it’s neither here nor there. At best, Disney might be able to show a coincidental increase in food, beverage, and merchandise sales. But it simply does not collect enough customer-specific data on sales to establish causation. As long as cash and credit remain viable and popular options there will be too many anonymous transactions to make that connection. At best, Disney can correlate FP+ usage to resort guests purchasing food and merchandise using resort charging privileges associated with their ticket media or magicbands. I don’t have any idea what percentage of resort guests that might be, but I would be surprised if even half did so on a consistent basis. And that still excludes 100% of off-site and day guests from the data set.
In short, regardless of what they might imply (or even outright state), Disney cannot, with any empirical certainty, prove that a significant number of FP+ users are using their recovered time to spend money at stores, restaurants, and food booths, or prove that those who do are spending money that they wouldn’t have otherwise spent.
It makes much more sense to me that a significant percentage of FP+ users would spend their recovered time standing in line for other attractions and events for which they do not have fast passes. Any increase in retail and food sales can just as easily be attributed to overall increases in park attendance. Not offered as science, just an observational hunch.
I disagree with this. Statistical analysis isn’t about having perfect information, but rather to be able to make predictions and gain insights based on the info you have. With credit cards and Magic Bands, Disney has a ton of information. They can also compare pre FP+ trends with later trends - i.e. if guest spending on Dining/merch is higher per guest - something they always report in their earnings.
Disney has a ton of data. Given the tools they have, I am sure they are able to make this correlation.
Regarding FP+, I still doubt they will do it - mainly because it provided them with that data that is so valuable. And they will have FP upgrades that they will sell in addition to free FP+.
But time will tell. I suspect that whatever they are going to do, they’ll do it this year to maximize the opening of Galaxy’s Edge.
No, but it is about having some information, both sufficient and relevant. If I pay cash for a Dole Whip while waiting for for my FOP fast pass window to open, Disney does not have enough information to make the connection. Even if it did, it’s essentially meaningless.
Statistical analysis isn’t about faith, either.
I just don’t agree that FP+ provides such valuable data. Disney will tell you it’s valuable because they spent a ton of money on the technology. They’re not going to get on a conference call with shareholders and admit that they pissed away a billion dollars (yes, I know that billion number tossed around includes more than just FP+). I think FP+ is a valuable marketing tool. It might even be valuable for traffic control in some cases. It provides the illusion of speed if not always the reality. I also believe that FP+ has been a valuable exercise for Disney to explore the potential benefits and limitations of wearable RF. It has been a big contributor in the effort to condition guests to don their Mickey-approved tracking collars without giving it a second thought . But as a data source I just don’t see FP+ being that useful.
We agree on one point, though. Time will definitely tell. And sooner rather than later.
Is “punished” really the appropriate word there? I mean, I get what you’re saying but the people on this board have probably invested an inordinate amount of time to optimize the minutia of an enormously complicated system. Taking away our super edge-case advantage (or monetizing it or redistributing or whatever) could hardly be described as punishment. And if they got rid of FPP, I’m sure we’d find lots of other ways to gain an advantage, because we care enough to wake up early, do research, and plan and most other people don’t.
I have perfectly wonderful days at regional theme parks without any kind of FastPass or virtual queuing and just know how to avoid lines.
Yes punishment is a tad strong, but we would really rethink our plans without FP. But, we always buy the fastpass or whatever the individual parks calls it, at all parks we visit if they offer it. Sea World, Six Flags, Knotts Berry Farm, Busch Gardens, Kings Dominion…without it, that park is likely not for us.
I think you hit on the key thing here. At other places, you buy the pass (or it is offered only to those staying on site). You 100% have to do research to know about that.
At Disney World, FP+ is available to everyone. Yes the date that you can book is altered depending on where you are staying, and yes, there is that Club Level purchase thing, but everyone who has a ticket to a park at WDW is entitled to 3 FP+. Even if you don’t do research ahead, you can still get those 3 when you’re there. Once upon a time (and maybe even still…I don’t work at Disney Store any longer) CMs or those using their complimentary passes could not attach those passes to MDE until they exchanged it at the ticket window, and therefore could not book FP+ in advance. I had a few trips with that and still had an amazing time and was able to get decent day-of FP+.
It’s changed a little (I’ve been fortunate to have been gifted some comp CM passes from a family member recently). Now you can book FPs with a comp pass, but only 7 days before. However if you’re staying onsite at a Disney hotel, the hotel 60 day window applies to the comp passes.
I’m not sure if there are different types of cm passes though - these are ones he gets every 6 months or so and can use them or gift them to someone.
Yeah, that’s what I’m talking about. I’m glad you can book a little in advance now. The last time I was there, the first day I went to exchange the paper pass, the CM at the window went ahead and loaded my other ones onto my account so I could make advance ones for the next days.
What it comes down to, for me, is that those who plan (e.g., those who use Touring Plans) will do much better at a park, with our without the FP. I don’t believe the FP will make a huge difference. If you use FP, but also plan well, the FP will make less of a significance than the planning.
I’ll give the example of our trips to Cedar Point. They do offer a paid “FastLane” experience, like most amusement parks. But we have never used it. Instead, we have done so many times, we know what order to tackle the rides in order to most effectively use our day. We arrive at Rope Drop, but we don’t follow the crowds, so to speak. Instead, we actually start hitting the LESS popular roller coasters starting at the MIDDLE of the park. In doing so, within the first two hours, we usually get in 5 to 6 of the coasters, and then end up in line for the most popular of coasters, which then as a SHORTER line than if we had gone right at RD. Furthermore, even if we HAD gotten in line first there, the time we would have spent in line would have allowed time for the other rides to fill up.
As a result, without any special passes, we are able to hit must about all of the coasters (17…or is it 18…of them) in a single day, PLUS additional rides. Others without such plans and know-how probably do half as much.
Now, if CP had the same thing as FPP available (pre-booking and all), we might be able to take advantage of it…but that benefit would pale in comparison to just knowing what to do when.
All the data that is being gathered by the Magic Bands is useful. Anything you do with a MB plus location data is captured and attributed to a single individual (yes, people swap bands, but this is minor noise in the dataset as a whole). Plus groups of bands are associated with MDE accounts, so they have data relating to group behavior.
FPP data in and of itself isn’t that useful, and I seriously doubt that it is used to schedule ride staff levels. However, FPP is the major carrot that induces us into providing WDW with all of the MB data, so in many ways FPP can be viewed as the MB data source. This is the reason why WDW will never eliminate free FPP, at least without implementing another equally attractive “carrot” to keep us wearing MBs. It’s all about capturing big data.