First time to DLC, WDW veteran. I was going to plan a trip for May 3-7 but the crowd calendar is showing very high crowds. What am I missing? Is there an event that week? Do kids get out of school early in Cali? All other sites show that week as average. I do not want to be there on a 10 day so I guess I am moving my trip even though resort rates were really good. Any advice? Thank you!
We have been discussing a similar time frame in other threads and we are suspicious of the numbers given. Unless you are going on a holiday weekend, you should be fine as long as you use a touring plan or know what you are doing. Not to say it’s impossible that you will see CL 10.
Also in response to this part:
I wouldn’t move your trip. You could jinx it and end up with worse crowds! (Not that I’m superstitious but there aren’t a lot of times that have consistently low crowds like early May). Use TP as just one data point. If you’re getting a good rate, that is one indication that it may not be a busy time at the resort.
Thank you!! I will look at some other posts. The consistent 9 and 10s all week just threw me! We could also go the week of Halloween and that is showing way lower crowds. Who knows at this point. We just really don’t enjoy wall to wall crowds and would be taking our kids out of school so I needs to be worth it.
Halloween is often a busy time - not necessarily Halloween itself but the whole month leading up to have become a popular time for locals to visit. Personally I think May is a little safer if crowds are your only concern.
That is what I was originally thinking too, but I am just now learning Disneyland so I thought I was missing something. I am finding that almost none of my WDW knowledge transfers.
So I did some more research since your week includes Cinco de Mayo, which being a minor holiday nonetheless could drive some unusual crowd patterns. Also, May the 4th (“be with you”) has become something of a Star Wars holiday. It can apparently drive larger crowds at HS in WDW, but probably the extra celebrating will be contained to SWGE at DL.
First, here is your week’s forecast this year:
One of the most important things to notice here is that the tiers are low this week. That usually means Disney expects it to be a slow week! Low prices to attract crowds. But who knows what Disney’s logic is.
Here is the same week in 2019. I included through Thursday to make sure you have not only the same dates but also the same days of the week. Note that 2019, there were larger than average crowds leading up to SWGE opening at the end of May as people were trying to beat the rush:
Here is the same week in 2018:
Note that the pass blockouts are basically the same all three years for the weekend. Cinco de Mayo fell on a Saturday and Sunday in 2018 and 2019, but didn’t see huge crowds. Likewise with May the 4th. Also, there are no Grad Nites during your stay, while there were on those dates in 2018 and 2019.
I don’t want to completely dismiss TP’s forecast - they take a lot of factors into consideration that we could be missing here. They import school schedules from the 100 biggest districts, holidays, past patterns, new trends, new rides, etc. I read the latest Crowd Calendar blog entry and it was light on details for May. In general they said crowds have been down in 2020 from 2019 levels.
So in short, you should expect at least 5-7 level crowds while you are there. You might be unlucky and see 8-10. But no one can tell you for sure because it’s only a trend until it isn’t.
If I were you, I’d go in May. The weather is great, you already have your plans underway, and it’s coming up soon! With 5 days, you should be able to get through everything, even if one or two of those are travel days and even if crowds are as high as forecasted. Disney has done a pretty good job of smoothing out the crowds so you will rarely find an empty park anyway - just varying degrees of crowded.
You are awesome! I checked most of those things and just couldn’t figure out the 9 and 10s. I was second guessing myself so bad, but there were tons of rooms left with discounts and my thought was whatever does happen, summer options would prob be worse. Now hoping TP put some data in wrong. We have 5 full days since we have never been and we like to see everything with a 3 and 7 year old in tow. Gonna get up early, go to the early hour maybe get Max Pass and hope for the best!
Question…since we have 5 full days, do we still need park hopper? We usually skip it at WDW and just stay in one park each day. Didn’t know if that would work at DL.
With 5 full days you will be golden. You can tour either way, but if your budget isn’t too constrained, I would highly recommend park hopper passes. The two parks are so close together - it’s more convenient to go to DCA from DL than it is to go to World Showcase from Future World at Epcot. You may want to start in the morning at one park and spend the evening at the other. Especially with RotR boarding group madness, you might feel better having the ability to attempt all five days, even if you don’t spend the whole day at DL.
One other consideration for choosing a date - the new Spider-Man ride is opening this summer. It could drive higher crowds but if it is something you really want to ride, that is the only reason I’d reschedule. It looks to me to be similar to Toy Story Mania (which is also at DCA btw). Or if you really like Halloween decor and entertainment, or want to go to a Halloween party, that’s another good reason. And I checked the last few years and the week of Halloween has been low crowds.
We got to ride RotR last month at WDW so that will be a bonus if we get to ride again. Absolutely do not care about spider man. Mainly want to do the nostalgic things and Cars land and try to catch some of the shows. I had originally planned to do Halloween, but the prices were so good for May changed over. Ugh decisions decisions…
Well do May and if you like it, go in October as well!
Great data! This is what I was saying in other threads too. I love TP, for the personalized plans, but suspect that the DLR calendar doesn’t get as much attention / updating as WDW calendar.
Also, Disney had a great ticket deal in the weeks leading up to SWGE opening. That also drove crowds in April/May of last year. I know a lot of folks from up here (Pacific NW) that made kind of last minute trips to Disneyland because of the ticket deals being offered.
Ohh! Maybe that is skewing the data. Thanks for the info!