I’m brand-new to Touring Plans and how the crowd forecaster is set, so please forgive me - I have read all of the FAQ’s. Every other WDW crowd calendar out there (Like Easy WDW, etc) is predicting crowd levels around 2-4 for the week of Feb. 2nd - 6th. Touring Plans has that week set higher, with crowds around a 5 to 6. This seems like a significant difference to me. Could I be missing something?
All of the numbers that touring plans uses are based on expected ride wait times versus how crowded the parks will feel. They use the historical data of how long people waited that day in previous years and then make an educated guess for the next year. I’m sure it’s a lot more complicated than that but math makes my brain hurt lol.
Not sure what kind of data the other sites are using and there isn’t really a way to know which is right until that day, however, you can look at previous years to see what Touring plans estimated the crowd level to be versus what it actually turned out to be. Sometimes they are right on the nose and sometimes it’s off a little in either direction.
For next year specifically they may be padding it a little as attendance this fall and winter seem to be up quite a bit. The last few weeks people have been reporting much heavier crowds that in similar weeks during previous years.
Apples and oranges. Different scales
The first week of Feb has had low crowds and warm weather the past 4 years. You will enjoy it!
Thank you for the information! We are excited and would love some low crowds. Have never been in February before.