Extreme crowd change?

My family and I were planning a WDW trip from 12/09/16 - 12/15/16. MK was going to be on Sat. 12/10 which was originally a 3-5/10 crowd level. I log in today to find it jump all the way to a 9/10 and showing the whole resort at an 8/10. Is there some new event announced I am unaware of? Do the numbers always fluctuate this much? Should I wait it out and see if it goes down or move MK to another day and go with the new numbers?

Any help is appreciated! I though we were going in one of the slower times of year (between Thanksgiving and Christmas and kids still in school)

Andrew

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Yes, every few months they re-run all of the predictions based on shifting data from multiple++ sources to estimate crowds. Someone in the know may chime in with specific details, but I would guess they use a composite of previously-know information (historical crowds and events) updated with information not available until now - possible examples, how booked-up hotels are, how quickly event tickets have sold out, what FPP are available 60 days out, changes in park hours based on Disney’s predicted crowds, who knows. Last year September was much busier than expected, but I think it may have been unclear until now whether that was a statistical anomaly vs a new trend or norm.
Recall, however, that TP still says that having a good plan at Rope Drop is still far more important than hitting a good crowd level. We’ve travelled several times at all crowd levels and I would definitely stand by this assertion.

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Also, you ARE still going during a quieter time - everything’s been crazy in the last year.
Predictions are unlikely to change much (if at all) between now and September, go with the new calendar. I would go with the new numbers and change days around if need be.
Armed with a plan, it will still be AWESOME and you’ll have a great trip.

Steve Bloom just did a blog post on the crowd calendar at blog.touringplans.com - http://blog.touringplans.com/2016/07/26/wdw-cc-update/. I feel your pain. We are going to WDW with my husband’s family from December 29 - January 3. I keep hoping that with enough planning and realistic expectations that we will be able to enjoy our time in the parks.

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@mossymom Thank you for the info! I was pretty stoked looking at the numbers before they just updated. This is our third time going and the past two times have been smack in the middle of the summer heat and crowds. I have used the touring plans on two past occassions and have not been disappointed! I am using them again but just was hoping maybe the 9/10 for MK was a fluke.

@Gnatjo Thanks for the link! Answered my question straight from the horses mouth. I’m assuming the crowds will still be lighter for our family this go around then our past summer WDW excursions even with the new updated crowd numbers. I consider you courageous to brave a holiday during your stay!

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We got hit pretty hard with this for our trip in October too. There were a couple of CLs that actually went down during our scheduled visit, but, unfortunately, neither were on days we had planned to go to those particular parks.

Considering that we all need to determine so far ahead which parks we will visit on which days in order to make ADRs, tour reservations, etc., it is definitely inconvenient and frustrating to have the CLs be adjusted so significantly so soon – if you can call two to five months “soon” – before our trips. :disappointed: It really doesn’t give us much of a chance to change our schedules.

We are in same boat. I was SHOCKED to see our crowd calendar change so much. We picked our dates (December 3 - 10) because crowds were supposed to be low. Yikes - I am quite concerned now!

I feel your pain! I almost had a stroke this morning when I saw the changes! LOL, We are going Dec 11-17 and I was so excited for all the 3-5s we had before, the 8-9s made my heart sink. I hope with good planning and ADRs we will still have a great time. :slight_smile:

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Right now, the crowd level for Magic Kingdom on New Year’s Day is listed as 6. I’m wondering if that can possibly be right? I had already planned on MK for our park that day so I’m hoping it stays low!

I would keep an eye on it, people tell me it’s wall-to-wall people on New Years