I expect Stardust racers to now be facing a long closure while the accident investigation goes on. Wonder if that will impact overall waits across the park by much.
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Amy’s given up on Mine-Cart Madness and is heading to Mario Kart after a quick lunch.
She was in line for MCM for 148 minutes on a posted of 105 minutes. It just went down for a second time while she was in line, with no ETA.
We may need to exclude MCM from touring plans until they get the ride reliabilty straightened out. We can’t have people spending 2.5 hours in line for that ride.
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Stardust Racers might be ~10% of the park’s overall ride capacity by itself. That’s a not-trivial amount to lose.
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This is what has me most concerned about the park in general. It’s one thing to get into a line that you know is long. It’s another to wait in a long line and it be much longer than you thought or go down completely. It’s hard to have a good attitude after that.
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@len, the TP Uni app is showing wait times for Stardust Racers in the app.
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Amy’s in the park and says it’s not running.
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We may not have marked it as closed. Checking now.
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Amy was on Monsters when it went down. Had to wait to get evacuated.
I hope today’s a payday for Universal Team Members, because Epic’s park ops needs a drink.
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OK, just marked it as closed. Give the app a minute to catch up. Thank you @PrincipalTinker
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So, we give it a month or two? Do you think that’s long enough for Universal to get they ducks in a row?
I’m looking at a spring trip. So I’m hoping we can get some relatively decent predictions by then. The historical data won’t be there but we should hopefully see normal operating patterns before then. Do you think that’s reasonable?
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I suspect it might not be - they’ve not been able to resolve them to this point, so betting it’ll happen in the next 4-8 weeks is a gamble.
The two big outages yesterday, besides Stardust Racers being closed all day:
- Monsters Unchained - just under 2 hours total
- Ministry of Magic - 1 1/2 hours
Mine-Cart Madness only reported ~40 minutes of downtime for the day, which is like me saying I only had “a few” cookies before bed last night.
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Well, at least we know the trouble makers.
Is there any type of trend of down time at opening vs throughout the day? With WDW we know the rides that have a higher tendency to see operational delays. I’m wondering if these rides are following a pattern. Obvs SDR is what it is
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I’ll check. I’m looking at Epic U models again this morning.
I’m headed to Ireland on Thursday (to see the Steelers in Dublin on Sunday), without a laptop. So I’m probably not going to release any new models into production until I get back on Monday. Changing something in production and then leaving the country doesn’t sound like a great idea.
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Agreed, lol. I don’t think we can be definitive about anything with the limited data anyway. Time will tell it’s tale.
I took another look at the Epic models over the weekend, using our standard modeling process. The wait-time curves looked very similar to the ones produced by the 90th-percentile method outlined above. I only changed one attraction (Monsters Unchained) based on that.
That gives me a bit more confidence in saying each attraction’s wait-time peaks and valleys are generally where the models think they are.
I did update the expected peak wait times for each attraction for each crowd level. Most of those went up. Then I re-ran all the future wait-time forecasts with those new numbers.
Those forecasts are loading now on our staging system. I’ll re-generate our standard Epic touring plan when that’s done later today. And we’ll have Amy back in the parks and testing either tomorrow or Thursday.
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Here’s the latest version of the EU one-day touring plan for offsite guests and without Express Pass. It’s for Friday, September 26, which we’re predicting is a ‘4’ on the crowd calendar.
It also assumes:
- Guests will start lining up for Mine-Cart Madness during Early Admission
- We want free time at the end of the plan. This doesn’t allow for a “wait the crowds out until they leave” strategy, but it’s a popular option and one Amy’s likely to try when she’s testing in the parks.
- Walking and waiting settings are the defaults.
And here’s the same plan with Early Admission:
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I know you’re busy but if you can share the map plan for this? I’m more visual with the maps included. 
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For the non-EPA plan, I see that you have the person eating lunch from 11:59-12:29, taking a rest from 2:46-2:56 and then go-go-go for the rest of the day before ending their day around 8:53 PM. For the EPA plan, lunch is 12:37-1:07, rest from 2:12-2:22 then go-go-go until 7:59 PM or so. What is that based on? In my opinion, having the non-EPA person eating less than two hours after entering the park, then not eating again for the next 8+ hours is unrealistic. The EPA plan is little better. Please note that I am not criticizing how optimizer generated the plan, given the input times for the lunch and rest breaks. I’m criticizing the input. I think anyone who only planned to eat once during their park day would pick a time more toward the middle of their park day. I think anyone who chose a 12:15 lunch break would eat a second time during the day.
I’m not sure if changing the lunch and break times would make a difference in being able to fit everything in during the day. Have you tried it with different times?
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Ah, good point. It’s based on Amy saying “I need a break in the afternoon too.” 
The breaks are customizable, of course.
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