Disparity between predicted CL and predicted FPP+ availability

There was a ticket SNAFU so I wasn’t able to make my FPP+ until 54+6 days out, and ever since I’ve noticed that there seems to be far fewer options than the most recent TP blog update (https://touringplans.com/blog/2019/07/02/fastpass-availability-at-walt-disney-world-update-4/) would suggest for the predicted CLs. The predicted CLs and the predicted FastPass+ availability for those CLs are not matching up pretty much across the board, so I’m wondering if I shouldn’t adjust my expectations for possibly higher crowds predicted by lower FPP+ availability.

For instance:

1/24 is CL6 at MK. That’s 12 days away, so according to the chart, everything except 7DMT should be available. In actuality, BTMRR and Peter Pan have been gone for over a week already, and Space Mountain, Meet Mickey, and Enchanted Tales are down to 3 or 4 times available, mostly near park closing.

1/25 is CL7 at Epcot. That’s 13 days away, so according to the chart Frozen should be gone since 24 days out, but it was down to 3 times at 45 days out, and gone by 30 days out. Soarin should be available until the beginning of next week, but only has 6 evening times left. This one is the closest to matching.

1/27 is now a CL7 at AK. That’s 15 days away, so according to the chart everything except Na’Vi River and FoP should have available times. In actuality, though, Kilimanjaro Safari has been gone for 5 days already (as opposed to 7 days out predicted), Dinosaur only has 4 times available (so I doubt it will make it to the predicted 2pm day-of), and Na’vi River was gone at 32 days out (as opposed to 24 days out predicted)… that more closely resembles a CL 10.

1/24 - That seems normal for a CL6 only 12 days away.

1/25 - So much construction + multiple rides down for refurbishment make the FPPs that are there scarce.

1/27 - Not surprised that KS is gone. It does “sell out”. Dinosaur is the only one that surprises me. Is there EMH that day at AK? This does seem like it would indicate a CL higher than CL7 though.

It’s funny, some of what you are seeing is shown here

Like FEA, But BTMRR is showing as available here too?

BTMRR is showing available for the 25th (CL 9 at MK, and when I’ll be at Epcot), but not the 24th. Looking at that data, it just seems like it’s kind of a weird Wed-Fri all over the place (BTMRR and Peter Pan available Tuesday and Saturday but nothing in between? FP randomly available for FEA tomorrow and a week from tomorrow?), and higher than CL7 for Sunday at AK. I wonder how much of that is ProBowl people… it makes sense because the game is Sunday, so people might be just making a week of it.

Are you searching for a party of 1?

No. Initially I was searching for 7, but then I went down to 3 and 4 and got the same result.

I believe TP is only looking for FP availability for 1, so it will likely show more times available than for 3+ people.

Ahhh… that could explain it, though I’ve never noticed a big difference like this before and I’m usually looking for 4+.

Although when you posted Dibb was showing availability for BTMRR and they always show 4. I thought you checked throughout the day? Usually it might look like that if you are blocked out due to other fast passes you already have but I did not think that explained it in your case.

It seems that Dibb updates quite frequently, too… when I posted earlier the 22nd, 23rd, and 24th were showing totally unavailable for BTMRR, but now they show availability for 2 on the 23rd (but still none on the 22nd or 24th). Maybe I’ll have to check back several times a day to see if anything opens up.

With the extra same-day FP availability lately I’m thinking I’ll just be updating everything on the fly most days, though BTMRR is really the only thing at MK that we’ll be likely to have a long (>30 minutes) wait for. HS day was already a wing-it day, and there’s not a ton going on at Epcot right now so I’m mostly concerned about AK day, because that one seems to have a bigger difference than the others.

I also noticed that TS reservations for 6 were already nearly non-existent at 150 days… I think there were Tiffin’s Lion King packages and RoL lunches, TH dinners, and Rainforest Cafe. No TH breakfast at all and nothing all day at Yak & Yeti for sure.

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