Deluxe resort extended hours vs. after hours ticketed event in January 2023?

I am returning to Disney in January 2023 with my 2 college age kids. We have reservations at a deluxe resort to be able to use the Epcot extended hours on 1/9 and the MK extended hours on 1/11. I see that now there is a ticketed after hours for MK on 1/9 and HS on 1/11. Which one would typically have lower crowds? From my viewpoint, the question is whether the after hours HS event is worth the additional cost and sacrificing the MK deluxe extended hours ?

We have not been to Disney in the lightning lane/genie+ era but visited frequently in the fast pass era and had no issue with rope dropping to maximum rides and minimize waits but that was when my kids were younger. Also, there are many rides we’ve never done as we were last at Disney in 2018, especially at Hollywood Studios so just trying to maximize our experience.

Thanks in advance for any advice and recommendations.

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I don’t recall what the non-holiday, non-themed after hours events are like, but usually the themed after-hours events have additional characters, entertainment, parades, fireworks, snacks, food, etc. that make them worth the extra cost. If you just want short lines, I’d go for Deluxe hours, which will be more cost effective. But if it’s just plain old after-hours access to rides, the paid event might have lower crowds.

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We are not doing Deluxe extended hours or After Hours. Should we avoid both of these parks on those days? We do not have PH.

Just a heads up for anyone planning a trip in early February.

The MK extended evening hours for deluxe resort guests is changed from Wed 8th Feb to Tuesday 7th Feb.

Edit: I was thinking this is for a CM milestone celebration event. Although that usually involves an early closing so maybe not.