Curious What is Driving a Decreased Prediction in June Lower Than Historical Crowd Levels

Hello I am trying to figure out dates for a Disneyland trip this summer for the 70th anniversary. I am looking at Wednesday June 4 - Monday June 9 as magic key blackouts for Enchant and Inspire begin that Friday. I am noticing that the prediction for this time period is relatively low compared to historical predictions and historical park levels and am curious as to what is driving this? Are grad nights not factored into the prediction? Just like last year grad nights are on Friday and Sunday of this date range and looking back at last year for the same Friday Disneyland was a predicted 3 and ended up being a 7 I’m guessing due to grad nights. So really all I guess I am hoping to find out is if the prediction includes grad nights or not and if it does why is this weekend anticipated to be lower than historical. Thank you very much in advance. I have attached some photos of the prediction for this time frame and the historical numbers.




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Welcome!!

Be aware that these CLs and waits are not definite until about 45 - 30 days out. Right now they are just using historical data for 2022 - 2024. *(Sadly, this is an average using all the reported wait times.)

TP & CL’s shouldn’t be used to determine your travel dates. They just are helpful to see “trends” in crowds.

Basically, start making your plans, but know that your “real” plan won’t be ready until about 30 days in advance.

I love TP but any CL # that is more than 45 - 30 days out I no longer trust. Wait and see… it’ll fluctuate. TP only updates about 45 - 30 days in advance and copies & pastes the previous year’s historical info into the farther away future dates.

Also, WDW is the “heart” of the business. DLR and Universal don’t get as much attention when it comes to updates. It’s unfortunate, but true. I’ve been on these forums and a TP user for more than a decade.

Furthermore, sometimes that far in advance they are just using the historical data from that calendar date and not adjusted for the day of the week.

For example, if your trip starts on a Monday, that day was probably a Sat. or Sun. in 2023. So you might see a CL10 because this year that “date” was a weekend. When they update the calendar in 2021 they’ll adjust for that date being on Monday this time.

Every different website crowd calendar has their own way of getting their CL number. I like to look at multiples to get a better idea of when it is a “slower” time to go. CLs for a specific date aren’t reliable.

As stated a good TP will put you ahead of 85%+ of the people wandering around asking, “Well… what do you want to do next?”

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One of the complicating factors contributing to this is that actual crowds at Disney, basically since COVID, have been kind of all over the place. In 2022 and into 2023, crowd levels started to soar due to “revenge travel”, but then in 2024, crowd levels plummeted (relatively speaking). So, I think their models sort of predicted a trend. So what happens in 2025? Hard to say. Could be that levels go back up because people held off in 2024. Could be they continue to drop due to inflationary/economic pressures. Could be they pretty much plateau.

So, I think @darkmite2 is right that at 30 days out, the predicted levels will probably be MORE accurate (but it is still a bit of a guessing game).

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