So I have a trip planned for feb 22-mar 2 including meals and fp. Crowd estimates just increased to 8 and 6 for our park dates. Seriously considering changing trip to April 22-30 to get those much lower crowds 1 to 5 What are the chances the crowd estimates could increase like these have done? Traveling with two adults and four kids and I’m very crowd averse ( realizing I am going to WDW of course) but want to be smart and avoid them as much as I can. Thoughts appreciated.
Honestly, I don’t go by CL and when I go to DW I expect crowds. It looks like there is a cheer and dance competition at the end of April and some runs and high school and college training at the end of February. We went the first week in May this past year and sounds like it was similar the the end of April, decent weather and manageable crowds. When I looked back at CL’s out of curiosity there definitely weren’t any 1’s. They were typically around 5 or so.
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I agree with @Alewis678. One thing I don’t care for with TP crowd calendars is they aren’t explaining the factors in why a crowd level is what it is. I always check multiple sites crowd calendars and make the best decision with all that information. The end of February has a marathon and some kind of training. The end of April is Easter and a cheer competition. You’ll get crowds no matter when you go.
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The crowd levels for TP are based on wait times, not the number of people in the park. So the CL can be affected by ride closures, decreased ride capacity and number of people waiting in the queue. Crowd calendars, like KtP, tends to factor in the actual crowds of people in the park, not just the wait times. I tend not to use CL because we use rope drop, FPs and extra FPs, so we don’t actually wait in the long lines that contribute to high CL’s.
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I would never change my date to start the day after Easter! The first few days in February will be busy- it is Princess, but keep your plan!
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Well, with the new ticketing has come some information from Disney. If you change to April 22-30, Disney anticipates those days to be in higher demand and have priced tickets as such. If you stay with your Feb 22-Mar 2 dates, the ticketing prices are lower, suggesting Disney thinks they can’t charge as much for those days.
In fact, that could be driving the higher CL numbers on TP. If Disney thinks the crowds will be lower, they may not have the same staff in place in late Feb that they will need in April. I think, if I’m understanding the blog correctly, that’s one of the factors in these CL numbers being so high. Since they are based on ride times, not actual people through the gate, TP fears that Disney will not run rides at capacity, thus falsely inflating ride wait times.
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This is all very helpful info folks. Thank you. Sounds like you all think I should keep the feb plan. I do plan rope drops and have all fast passes I wanted so I guess that helps. Thanks!!
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What’s ktp?
Kenny the Pirate. It’s another website. He hasn’t changed his March 2019 calendar since last June.
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Gotcha. I personally factor in both, as my DH is very crowd averse. OP mentioned the same, so it would be a factor for them as well. 
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