Crowd Calendar Change

I don’t know if all of you got the same message, but I got a message regarding the crowd calendar changing during my stay. Before I touch anything, I wanted to ask:
Will my touring plan completely change if I refresh it?

I got that notice too. There is a blog post here:
that describes the changes. Seems like the numbering system was changed due to overall increased crowds recently so the actual crowd level predictions did not change–that is, even if your day dropped from say a 6 to a 5, the expected wait times will be the same as before. The blog post will help it make more sense than my explanation. That being said, 4 of my days had a drop in crowd level but my newly evaluated TPs showed the same waits for everything as before the so-called change.

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I did see that, I just didn’t know if my actual plan would completely recalculate times because of it. I guess it doesn’t make a huge difference, but I wanted to know before I did it and it changed everything.

I am getting ready to re-evaluate my plans for this week, I will let you know if they change at all.

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Thank you!!!

I re-evaluated all of my TP’s and they did not change at all.

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I wish they would provide some written logic on their predictions. That guy Josh on whatever site, has been providing detailed explanations that make a lot of sense. Albeit last minute. For example, Touring Plans has a 7/10 for MK on Tuesday Feb 14. But around a 3/10 on Wed Feb 15 which is a EMH 10:00 PM day. Then that week on the Friday before President’s Day weekend MK is a 7/10 on an EMH AM. Josh explanation has Tuesday the better of those days which made sense. It would be nice to read the science behind it for each day so we can make a more informed decision. I am hoping that the dinner reservations being more open that Tuesday vs. the other days is a good sign.

I know there have been several blog posts explaining the science and the algorithms behind the crowd level numbers. I have read them, and I can say that unless you really, really have a need to know where the numbers are coming from, it may be more confusing than it is beneficial. I would attempt to link them all for you, but I’m not sure I can find them again. A search in the forum topics may help you find the information you’re looking for.

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To me, CLs are only good for one thing… to tell me what it will feel like when I’m in the park. If I can’t rely on it for that, it doesn’t matter if Easter Week is a 10 every day unless that’s when I’m there.

I want to know what a 5 vs a 7 feels like. If it was a 7 before and now it’s a 6, how does that relate to what it felt like last year, when they predicted a 7 and it was actually a 9? Oh, but now, that same day last year says it was actually a 6. Does that mean a 6 now is going to feel like that 9 felt last year? That’s much crazier than the 7 from two years ago.

You see how the CL makes no difference unless I can use it to better understand the crowds? Sure, I’ll pick the park with a CL6 over the CL8 on the same day. It’s great for that, but so are the systems other sites use in that respect.

I have to agree, moving the scale to be out of 15 would have been more meaningful to me, as it would have kept the historical feel in context, while reporting the realities of longer waits and more crowded pathways.

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